Israel is still pounding Lebanon, Hezbollah is still firing rocket barrages at Israel, Syria and Iran are the very pictures of wounded innocence, and the Secretary of State is en route to the Middle East to negotiate a cease-fire. Yawn.

There's no shortage of "experts" gushing sage wisdom on the situation in the Middle East, and there are the predictable calls from the world community (and particularly the Arab states) that the United States must get involved in negotiating an end to the fighting, because only the United States can put real pressure on Israel.

So, who's putting pressure on Hezbollah? On Syria? On Iran?

As readers of this blog know, I am very critical of the current US administration and the ineptitude of it's Middle East policies. But I find myself agreeing with Mr Bush that there is no point in negotiating yet another cease-fire unless it can establish the conditions for a larger peace settlement. The problem, of course, is that a cease-fire isn't in anyone's interest right now unless it's Hezbollah...which is in the position of the punch-drunk boxer reeling under his opponents relentless blows and waiting for the bell so he can get a break to regain his strength. Israel, understandably, isn't interested in a cease-fire that will just let Hezbollah rest, rearm, and start over. Iran likes the idea of a crisis that takes attention away from its nuclear programs. The Sunni-majority Arab states, perversely, secretly want Israel to pound the Iranian-backed Sunni Hizbollah forces into the sand so that they don't represent a rallying point for other Sunnis.

And so it goes.

What can Secretary Rice accomplish by flying to the area at this time? In my opinion, not much. She may succeed in getting a cease-fire, but she won't get real peace because no one is interested in peace on anything but their own terms, and all sides are being driven by their most radical elements. I wish the Secretary well and hope she succeeds.

But I'm not holding my breath, and you probably shouldn't hold yours.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo