Thigh Bones, Hip Bones, Food, and Gas

Last year I wrote a post in this blog titled "Thigh Bone's Connected to the Hip Bone, etc.," in which I lamented the ability of our government and our electoral process to view things as an interconnected system in which actions in one area may create unintended effects in others...as the old children's song says, "the thigh bone's connected to the hip bone..." One of the side effects of sitting at home sick is the time to really read all my accumulated newspapers, magazines, and websites and think about the world situation.

And - surprise! - the world's thigh bones and hip bones are all connected, too.

Consider two major problems facing the world today: the shortage and cost of food, and the soaring cost of oil. The two are linked in many ways:

The price of oil is rising for many reasons, including the booming economy of China, the lack of refining capacity relative to demand, environmental limitations on oil exploration and development, the relative inefficiency of gasoline engines, and the prevalence of large, gas-guzzling cars and SUVs. Reckless speculation also puts upward pressure on the price of oil, as those who can afford to do so buy up large stocks, inflating the cost for everyone else.

The cost of food includes the cost of all the things that go into it...including oil. Gasoline powers the trucks that move the food from farm to manufacturer to consumer, and much of the fertilizer used to grow that food is derived from petroleum. The wrappers and containers that hold the food in the stores, and the bags in which we bring the food home from the store are generally made of plastics - which are also produced from petroleum.

Land policies also affect the cost of food. Developers seeking profitable new properties offer huge amounts of money to farmers for their land...and that land ends up covered with homes, condos, shopping centers, and parking lots rather than wheat, corn, vegetables, and grazing cattle. Taxes on "undeveloped" land also put upward pressure on the cost of the food grown there.

As the price of oil goes up, we belatedly search for alternative fuel sources...like ethanol...which can be produced from corn. Farmers aren't stupid; they see that the potential earnings from planting corn for ethanol are larger than those from planting more fragile wheat...and so they plant more corn. More of that corn goes to produce ethanol, which means less is available for animal feed and human consumption...the price of that smaller amount goes up...which means higher feed costs for animals, which translates to higher prices for the meat we buy in the store.

Oh, and let's not forget global warming (you know, that phenomenon that some politicians and business interests say doesn't exist)...climate and rainfall patterns are clearly changing, and have an obvious effect on crop yields. Droughts in some areas, floods in others, and changing lengths of growing seasons force farmers to change the crops they plant and the way they cultivate their land. New strains of crops, better fertilizers, and development of farmland in newly arable areas may help, but will take time.

The thigh bone's connected to the hip bone.

I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed...others smarter than I am have made many of the same observations. The Washington Post has a very good series this week on the global food crisis, and it's worth your time in reading. The Economist has also done some very good reporting on the issue.

The problem, of course, is that these interconnected problems can't be solved with the sort of throw-money-at-them short-term solutions governments really want. They will require painful long-term decisions about tax policy, land use, farming policies and subsidies, trade agreements and tarriffs, regulations on emissions, fuel efficiency standards, alternative energy sources, environmental policies, and the use of foodstuffs for other than human or animal consumption (i.e., corn for ethanol production).

Until those in a position to make the tough decisions are willing to acknowledge that all of these problems are interlinked and require a system-based approach to their solution, the problems will only get worse. Ultimately, everyone is going to have to sacrifice something, and not everyone is going to be happy.

But I'd rather be unhappy than starve.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo