This year's midterm elections will give us an early idea of how the 2028 presidential race will shape up. At the moment, Der Furor's abysmal ratings hint at the possibility of a blue tsunami ... unless, of course, the Democrats manage once again to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
As you know, Dear Readers, I have nothing but disdain and disgust for today's Republican Party, which long ago jettisoned any rational social, economic, and diplomatic policies in exchange for a parade of the most proudly ignorant leaders in our history. For a sadly entertaining history of the party's relentless intellectual decline*, read Andy Borowitz's brilliant Profiles in Ignorance: How America's Politicians Got Dumb and Dumber.
Yes, the midterms and the 2028 presidential elections are the Democrats' to lose ... unfortunately, past history indicates that they will try hard to do it, in any number of ways. Here are the four big ones I see:
1. Choosing an unelectable candidate. As much as we might wish it were otherwise, a majority of Americans will not vote for a candidate - no matter how spectacularly qualified - who is: (1) female; (2) gay**; (3) not "Christian***;" (4) not white; (5) too old; or (6) any combination of these. The unfortunate truth is that most of the obvious potential Democratic candidates fall into one or more of these categories ... think Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris (female), Pete Buttigieg (gay), Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro (Jewish), Senator Cory Booker (black), and Senator Bernie Sanders (overly long in the tooth).
2. Overexplaining. Most American voters have the attention span of a two-year-old. They are not interested either in detailed histories and explanations of why problems exist or the complicated details of the policies that will fix them. They want simple, comforting slogans - think "Make America Great Again" - and just assume that the desired solutions will follow. Republicans learned long ago that a message that doesn't fit on a foot-wide bumper sticker in a huge and colorful font doesn't sell; Democrats make the mistake of trying to squeeze the finest of fine print onto a smaller sticker. Learn to explain complicated issues in brief terms your audience understands.
3. Ignoring the obvious. It didn't work for Biden and it's not working for Der Furor. Don't deny the truth of what people can see in their daily lives. Affordability is a crisis. Housing (availability and affordability) is a crisis. Health care (availability and affordability) is a crisis. Energy is a crisis, particularly as it's been aggravated by a foolish GOP campaign against renewable sources. Don't tell us everything's fine, tell us what you're going to do to fix the problems we all can see ... and do it in plain, non-wonky English.
4. Advocating programs while ignoring their costs. The answer to a stubborn problem is not always a new program, especially if that program has a hefty price tag and no clear source of funding. Democrats historically have a "tax and spend" approach to issues, as opposed to Republicans, whose approach is "don't tax, but spend anyway." Don't advocate anything without a realistic plan for how you'll fund it, and don't rely simply on new or higher taxes as the basis of that plan. Accept that painful tradeoffs are as necessary for governments as they are for working class couples at the kitchen table trying to pay the bills.
I could go on, but you get the idea. Republicans (whatever that label means any more) have clearly demonstrated the bankruptcy of their ideas. Democrats must do better. The upcoming elections are theirs to lose.
Have a good day, and think carefully about what sort of future you want to vote for in the midterms and in the presidential election.
More thoughts coming.
Bilbo
* Don't get your panties in a wad, MAGAts - he roasts the Democrats, too, but for being too intellectual.
** I understand that "gay" does not cover the vast range of sexual self-identification terms that are piling up around us, but it's less cumbersome than "LGBTQIA+. I think you understand my meaning.
*** We can quibble about how much of a "Christian" Der Furor is, but he appeals to MAGA "Christians" because he hates the same people they do.
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