Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Bilbo Goes Out On a Political Limb

Super Tuesday is over, except for the bloviation of all the talking heads telling us what it all meant. But I don't need them - I think I know.

As you know, I don't think there's anyone running for president that I believe is ready for the job, especially when you consider the need for a real statesman and leader to clean up the broken glass left by the current administration. So I'm not endorsing anyone...but I'm going to go out on a political limb and make a prediction.

I predict that the November election will pit the Republican team of John McCain and Mike Huckabee against the Democratic team of Barak Obama and John Edwards. And I further predict, subject to future red-faced adjustment, that the Democratic ticket will win.

Here's my thinking:

If the Republicans can quit squabbling among themselves like a bunch of Democrats, they'll realize that there's no point in arguing whether John McCain is sufficiently conservative, and that he's the only person in their stable with the national stature and experience to make a credible candidate. Unfortunately, in order to attract the far right wing of the party, Mr McCain will need a vice presidential person who can appeal to those who are fixated on perceived hard-core conservative religious and political values. Mr Huckabee can attract the evangelical Christians and others who aren't completely comfortable with Mr McCain. Thus, the Republicans will grit their teeth and go with a McCain-Huckabee ticket. And lose.

The Democrats have their best chance to win the White House in eight years, and the election is theirs to lose. Most of the electorate is so despondent over the state of the country after eight disastrous years of Republican mismangement that they'll vote for almost anyone who isn't George Bush. The Democratic advantage this year is that they offer the perception, if not the reality, of real change. For the first time in American history, the Democrats are offering a credible black candidate and a credible female candidate. Unfortunately, they are also offering a credible black and a credible female candidate.

Barak Obama is a charismatic and attractive figure - a black man that Americans of all colors can support. Unfortunately, he lacks the experience and the seasoning needed for a president at this critical juncture in history. While I think he can be an inspiring and uniting leader, I also think his simplistic views on ending the war reflect an unfortunate willingness to pander politically rather than take an unpopular, but more realistic stand. Hillary Clinton is also charismatic in her own way, but she carries the baggage of Bill Clinton, who has not done her candidacy any favors...and if anyone can unite the squabbling Republicans in a solid wall of opposition to anything she says, it's her. If Hillary Clinton endorsed motherhood and apple pie, the Republicans would unite in endorsing cloning and chocolate cake. I just don't see her being able to accomplish anything in the face of fanatical, mindless conservative Republican opposition.

So...

Mr Obama will never be able to live with Hillary Clinton, both because she's a divisive figure and because she'll always be overshadowed by her husband...so she can't be a realistic vice-presidential option. I believe Mr Obama will select John Edwards, a popular and charismatic individual who can help him attract southern whites and the slightly more conservative elements of the party.

And I think they'll win, because they'll be really different, and because so much of the country is so pissed off at the Republicans.

So that's Bilbo's prediction as of February 6th, 2008. It's NOT an endorsement...it's a prediction based on my perception of the political realities. I can't find it in me to endorse anyone in this sad crew of presidential wannabees.

I'm fattening up a few crows in a cage out back in case I have to eat them later, but I think my analysis is at least as good as anyone else's. We'll see.

Your thoughts?

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

8 comments:

The Mistress of the Dark said...

Oh god, the last thing we need is another democratic team with Edwards in it. He's a beacon of doom I tell you.

And as I say ever major election year...why does Canada look so good?

Amanda said...

Hi Bilbo. Once again, your blog gives me a great summary of American politics! No need for me to go to CNN or BBC ;)

Anonymous said...

Your unknown friend believes even the Democrats realize Edwards brand of insincere 19th century populism is a non-seller. Look for a surprise choice of a current successful governor--now wouldn't that be the only Hispanic governor, with an anglo name: Bill Richardson. Otherwise, although you are furious at Bush, there are a lot of people who are not. This election will not be a Democratic blow-away, especially if Miss Rice is the Republican Veep nominee.

Jean-Luc Picard said...

Some logic in your reasoning there.

Serena Joy said...

Yup, I believe your prediction sums it all up quite nicely.

Mike said...

So you would think that if you bloviate, you would be a bloviator. Except there is no such word. Except a small mention in one article. "sometimes called bloviators"

Serina Hope said...

I don't know. I think that the Democratic ticket will win...but I am guessing Clinton - Obama. I just think that she will get the nomination. And I think that she will know that she needs him... That is my guess.

John said...

I think that you're right on. Even if Clinton would get the Democratic nod, Clinton-Edwards is a winner.
(I think Edwards-Kerry would have beat Bush in the last election.)

As a lifelong Republican, I think that your anonymous friend is deluded to think that the Republicans stand a chance. They have gone far and above any previously known administration/congress to alienate themselves from the people that put them in office.