Ready, Aim, Shoot Foot!

As you've read often enough in this space, I stand in awe of the ability of the Palestinians to always take the course of action guaranteed to bring the maximum misery to the largest number of people. I didn't think any other group of human beings could be that consistently stupid ... until now.

This week, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives voted 27-21 to approve a non-binding resolution describing the 1915 mass murder of Armenians in the waning days of the Ottoman Empire as "genocide." Depending on one's view, this can be interpreted either as a principled stand against a historic injustice, or as shameless pandering to a loud and influential voting bloc without regard for the dire consequences of the action. I take the latter view.

No one, not even the Turks, deny that many hundreds of thousands of Armenians died or were killed in the terrible aftermath of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the creation of modern Turkey. The problem comes, as it often does, in the interpretation of those events and their cause. A case can be made that the deaths were a result of a systematic campaign by the Turks to rid their nation of a hated minority group. A case can similarly be made that Turks and Armenians killed each other in large numbers as a result of hatreds that had festered for many years. A good summary of the history of the event and its twisted interpretations can be found in Margaret MacMillan's superb book about the Versailles Peace Conference, Paris 1919.

But the tragic events of 1915 and the surrounding years happened nearly a century ago. Today, we live in the very complicated world of 2007. At a time when we are mired in a deadly war in Iraq, and Muslims everywhere are increasingly intolerant and spring-loaded to believe the worst conspiracy theories about everyone else, common sense tells one that it isn't a good idea to poke a sharp stick into the political eye of America's only relatively stable ally in the Arab-Muslim world.

In a statement reflecting utter ignorance of reality, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi yesterday said she didn't think the Turkish government had any reason to be upset over the Armenian Genocide resolution because it dealt not with Turkey, but with the Ottoman Empire. I fail to understand how anyone could be that stupid. First of all, I believe that in an international legal sense, the government of Turkey is considered to be the successor government of the Ottoman Empire. And second, anyone the least familiar with modern Turkey knows that the Turks have a very prickly sense of pride and honor and quickly take offense at perceived slights (you can be jailed there for "insulting Turkishness," an offense which can take many forms). Even a fatuous numbskull like Ms Pelosi should have gotten the message about how seriously the Turks take the issue when the Turkish government yesterday recalled its ambassador to Washington "for consultations" - a diplomatic shot across our bow.

What makes this so serious? Consider that our access to air bases in Turkey is essential for supplying and supporting our troops fighting in Iraq. Consider also that Turkey has a long-running fight with violent Kurdish separatists who are supported in part by the Kurds of northern Iraq. The Turkish army and much of the Turkish public strongly supports military action - up to and including an invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan - to eliminate the problem. The U.S. government is anxious to keep the Turks from taking such action, which would bring chaos to the only reasonably peaceful region of Iraq ... but the Turks aren't going to be particularly interested in our concerns when our Congress has shown so little concern for theirs.

I believe much of the blame for this lunacy lies with Mr Bush and the Republicans. By routinely sidelining and ignoring the Democrats while they were in power, they squandered what political capital they might have had to sway the opinions and actions of their political opponents, turning potential allies into the political equivalent of petulant toddlers. For their part, those who support the Armenian Genocide resolution are lining up for a powerful shot to the foot by not considering the larger political implications of their actions.

I hope that common sense and good judgment will prevail, and that Congress will step back from taking an action which will play well at home, but will have terrible consequences for our larger foreign policy interests.

But, as in so many things dealing with Congress, I'm not holding my breath.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo