The Null Hypothesis and the Nut Hypothesis

Given the Trump Administration's disdain for science*, I was interested to find a link to this YouTube video on one of my favorite websites.

The subject of the video (which is less than four minutes long and quite interesting) is the Null Hypothesis, the idea that a scientist should begin an experiment with the idea that nothing will happen. Narrator Tom Scott explains how it all works while he follows an experiment dealing with reading brain waves in zero gravity. The bottom line is that, when an experiment is finished and nothing has happened, it's not a "failure" ... rather, you've learned that a particular variable didn't make a difference. Unfortunately, that result isn't sexy enough to get media attention or encourage further funding** ... which in itself is a variable that can negatively affect scientific research.

Now, the Null Hypothesis - which argues for expecting that nothing will happen when an experiment is conducted - is the opposite of what we might call the Nut Hypothesis, which presupposes that enormous and uniformly positive results will result when a politically-motivated economic experiment is conducted***. We shall see how their latest experiment works out.

I'm reminded of the old saying that he who expected nothin' ain't gonna be deceived ... particularly as it applies nowadays.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

* As well as truth, honesty, fairness, and a responsible and rational foreign policy.

** Particularly from an administration that places more value on business than on knowledge.

*** It didn't quite work out that way when the GOP tried it in Kansas, but her e-mails.