Ferocious, Weak, and Crazy

In 2013 George Friedman, of the global intelligence firm Stratfor.com, wrote an interesting analysis of the national strategy of North Korea titled "Ferocious, Weak, and Crazy." Mr Friedman described the strategy this way:

"... the North Koreans positioned themselves as ferocious by appearing to have, or to be on the verge of having, devastating power. Second, they positioned themselves as being weak such that no matter how ferocious they are, there would be no point in pushing them because they are going to collapse anyway. And third, they positioned themselves as crazy, meaning pushing them would be dangerous since they were liable to engage in the greatest risks imaginable at the slightest provocation."

Three years later, I wrote a post which drew on that article and used ferocious, weak, and crazy to describe the behavior of Der Furor, then a candidate for president. Today, nine years and two presidential terms later, the adjectives apply more than ever.

Der Furor likes to appear ferocious, threatening real or perceived enemies with "fire and fury like the world has never seen." He is certainly one of the most bellicose men ever to hold the presidency, having offered to send the US military into Mexico to attack drug cartels, seize Greenland for national security purposes, and make Canada the 51st state ... and even to deploy the military for law enforcement within the United States. He works overtime to project an image of overwhelming strength and manly virtue, aided by his admirers who churn out laughable images of him as an impressively muscled, heroic, and heavily armed figure. He's besotted with the idea of having a massive military parade in the streets of Washington on his birthday (ostensibly in honor of the birthday of the US Army, which conveniently falls on the same date). And he enjoys striking heroic poses in the style of past strongmen like Benito Mussolini and (dare I say) Adolf Hitler ...

But for all his belligerence and posturing, Der Furor is a weak man. He has staffed his administration with slavishly obedient toadies he knows will not oppose him. When met with actual pushback, whether from state governors or foreign leaders, he is quick to back down, although in such a way as to have someone else to take the responsibility - he recently suggested that the 145% tariffs he imposed on imports from China might be reduced to a mere 80%, although he said that the decision would be "up to [Treasury Secretary] Scott B[essent]."* He will never admit to making an error, for fear of appearing weak. He is a weak man's imitation of a strong man.

And Der Furor is, indeed, crazy ... whether crazy like a fox (as his followers fervently believe) or crazy as a bedbug is for medical professionals to determine. But in an interview with the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board he claimed he would not have to use military force to prevent a blockade of Taiwan, because President Xi “respects me and he knows I’m [expletive] crazy.” Der Furor appears to subscribe to the “madman theory” of foreign policy, that a leader's suicidal threats may seem credible if the opponent believes the leader is irrational**. In any case, his wildly unstatesmanlike behavior, which includes the silly dance moves at his rallies, the making of national policy and announcement of major personnel changes by social media post, and the resort to childish insults and threats when his desires are thwarted, hardly inspires confidence in the mental stability of the leader of a formerly great nation.

Ferocious, weak, and crazy ... it used to be North Korea. Now it's our own president.

In precise legal language, we're screwed.

Have a good day. More thoughts coming.

Bilbo

* Translation: if it doesn't work out, I'll blame it on Bessent. As we now know, (reported in the news since I drafted this post earlier in the week) Der Furor has, indeed, backed down from his tariff war with China and is describing it as a victory, although there seems to be no identifiable advantage gained by the US.

** The term is often used in reference to President Richard Nixon, who wanted North Vietnamese leaders to believe he might be crazy enough to resort to nuclear weapons.