As you all know, I am a dedicated, if amateur, student of history. One of the things that fascinates me is the realization of parallels between different eras. One such parallel is playing out now.
I’m reading (for the nth time) Barbara Tuchmann’s classic book “The Guns of August,” which documents the first month - August, 1914 - of the First World War. As you may recall, the war opened with a massive German assault on France that relied on a vast flanking movement through neutral Belgium to avoid French border fortifications. The German plan was incredibly detailed and relied on a precise timetable that assumed that the Belgians would step aside and allow the German army to pass safely through and quickly conquer France.
As history shows, it didn’t work out that way. The tiny Belgian army put up a stiff resistance that threw off the German timetable and gave the French and British time to deploy their forces to resist the coming assault. The war dragged on for another four years, fueled by the German miscalculation in its first days.
The same thing is happening today. Russian leader Vladimir Putin, hoping for a quick victory before the West could rally to the support of Ukraine, assumed that his huge army would simply sweep Ukrainian resistance aside, decapitating its government and seizing its territory in a fast, relatively bloodless blitzkrieg.
As with the Germans in Belgium in 1914, it’s not working out that way.
The Ukrainians, under the unexpectedly dynamic and heroic leadership of President Volodymir Zelinsky, are putting up a fierce resistance that has denied Mr Putin his quick victory and rallied world opinion to their defense. Russian forces supplied only for a fast campaign have in many cases stalled, with tanks and other vehicles running out of fuel and abandoned on roadsides, soldiers unfed, and ammunition in some cases running short. The war is, of course, far from over and the Russians still have enormous forces not yet committed to the battle, but the initial lessons are clear.
Military planning requires making assumptions, and those assumptions need to be practical and rational. The assumption that a proudly independent nation would simply roll over and submit to invasion and occupation was neither practical nor rational, and far too many Russians and Ukrainians are paying the price … just as so many others paid the ultimate price for the assumptions made by German leaders and planners in 1914.
Let’s hope that the unprovoked and ill-planned Russian invasion of Ukraine can be ended before too many more people needlessly die to satisfy one man’s delusions of grandeur. And let's also hope that the Republican party here at home can finally understand who the real enemy is.
Have a good day. More thoughts coming.
Bilbo
The Ukrainians, under the unexpectedly dynamic and heroic leadership of President Volodymir Zelinsky, are putting up a fierce resistance that has denied Mr Putin his quick victory and rallied world opinion to their defense. Russian forces supplied only for a fast campaign have in many cases stalled, with tanks and other vehicles running out of fuel and abandoned on roadsides, soldiers unfed, and ammunition in some cases running short. The war is, of course, far from over and the Russians still have enormous forces not yet committed to the battle, but the initial lessons are clear.
Military planning requires making assumptions, and those assumptions need to be practical and rational. The assumption that a proudly independent nation would simply roll over and submit to invasion and occupation was neither practical nor rational, and far too many Russians and Ukrainians are paying the price … just as so many others paid the ultimate price for the assumptions made by German leaders and planners in 1914.
Let’s hope that the unprovoked and ill-planned Russian invasion of Ukraine can be ended before too many more people needlessly die to satisfy one man’s delusions of grandeur. And let's also hope that the Republican party here at home can finally understand who the real enemy is.
Have a good day. More thoughts coming.
Bilbo
