Another Parallel

This past Monday in this space, I wrote of the parallels that I see between the unfolding Russian assault on independent Ukraine and the German invasion of neutral Belgium at the outset of the First World War. Yesterday my attention was drawn to another parallel that is equally interesting and more immediately frightening.

In a March 1st article titled "Distraught Dictator or Rational Actor?" David Ignatius looked at the question of Vladimir Putin's mental state - an issue that has been on a lot of minds lately. Mr Ignatius writes that "his [Putin's] mental attitude appears to be more a fixation on Ukraine than a broader instability" and that "U.S. officials believe that Ukraine for years has been Putin's most sensitive issue - one where his normal political calculus doesn't seem to apply."

This sounds right to me, and sets up a parallel with another worrying geopolitical fixation: that of The People's Republic of China with Taiwan.

If Putin "broods about Ukraine, rages about its tilt toward the West, and schemes to bring it back under Russian domination" (as Mr Ignatius writes), his attitude is little different from that of the Chinese leadership, which is absolutely inflexible on its insistence that Taiwan is part of Big China. Consider that the least indication that Taiwan is being viewed as a nation in its own right sends the Chinese government into paroxysms of fury and starts sabers rattling. In a speech last October, Chinese President Xi Jinping said,

"No one should underestimate the Chinese people's staunch determination, firm will, and strong ability to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity ... The historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled, and will definitely be fulfilled."

Putin and Xi approach their parallel territorial fixations as absolutes, without any possibility of compromise or negotiation, making it difficult to develop political "off ramps" that could offer a face-saving way to step away from a brink that, in Putin's case, has already been decisively crossed. 

One has to wonder what lessons Xi Jinping is drawing from Russia's situation. The devastation of Russia's economy by the rest of the world (except, at the moment, for China) is a sobering reminder of the economic power the West can bring to bear, but that power would likely be harder to wield against China, which is much more integrated into the world's economy than is Russia.

American manufacturers for years have minimized costs and increased profits by allowing their products to be made in Chinese factories, to the extent that there are only limited options for obtaining many items from other sources. Will American consumers give up their Chinese-made products to punish an attack on Taiwan? Do they have a short- to medium-term alternative? I doubt it.

We are in uncharted geopolitical waters now, thanks to Vladimir Putin's brutal determination to destroy an independent Ukraine. Let us hope that the world's reaction gives pause to the parallel determination of the Chinese government to destroy an independent Taiwan.

Have a good day. See you tomorrow for the first edition of Great Moments in Editing and Signage for March ... we can all use a laugh.

More thoughts then.

Bilbo