Thomas Friedman's Rules for Understanding the Middle East

Mike's last two posts (this one and this one) illustrate the lunacy that defines the Middle East in general and the Arab/Islamic world in particular (yes, I know that Malaysia is not part of the Middle East). Who can understand how these idiots think...or even if they think at all?

One of my favorite commentators on issues of the Middle East is Thomas Friedman, the author and foreign affairs columnist for the New York Times. He speaks both Hebrew and Arabic, lived in the Middle East for many years, and is one of the most perceptive observers of that bizarre region that I've found. If you only read one book about the Middle East, it ought to be his classic From Beirut to Jerusalem, which is one of the most even-handed, witty, and sad things ever written about this screwed-up region.

One of Mr Friedman's best contributions to helping confused laymen comprehend the hopeless muddle of the Arab-vs-Israeli and Islam-vs-Everyone Else messes came in the form of his classic Fifteen Rules for Understanding the Middle East. Here they are:

Rule 1: What people tell you in private in the Middle East is irrelevant. All that matters is what they will defend in public in their own language. Anything said to you in English, in private, doesn't count. In Washington, officials lie in public and tell the truth off the record. In the Mideast, officials say what they really believe in public and tell you what you want to hear in private.

Rule 2: Any reporter or U.S. Army officer wanting to serve in Iraq should have to take a test, consisting of one question: "Do you think the shortest distance between two points is a straight line?" If you answer yes, you can't go to Iraq. You can serve in Japan, Korea or Germany -- not Iraq.

Rule 3: If you can't explain something to Middle Easterners with a conspiracy theory, then don't try to explain it at all -- they won't believe it.

Rule 4: In the Middle East, never take a concession, except out of the mouth of the person doing the conceding. If I had a dollar for every time someone agreed to recognize Israel on behalf of Yasser Arafat, I could paper my walls.

Rule 5: Never lead your story out of Lebanon, Gaza or Iraq with a cease-fire; it will always be over before the next morning's paper.

Rule 6: In the Middle East, the extremists go all the way, and the moderates tend to just go away.

Rule 7: The most oft-used expression by moderate Arab pols is: "We were just about to stand up to the bad guys when you stupid Americans did that stupid thing. Had you stupid Americans not done that stupid thing, we would have stood up, but now it's too late. It's all your fault for being so stupid."

Rule 8: Civil wars in the Arab world are rarely about ideas -- like liberalism vs. communism. They are about which tribe gets to rule. So, yes, Iraq is having a civil war as we once did. But there is no Abe Lincoln in this war. It's the South vs. the South.

Rule 9: In Middle East tribal politics there is rarely a happy medium. When one side is weak, it will tell you, "I'm weak, how can I compromise?" And when it's strong, it will tell you, "I'm strong, why should I compromise?"

Rule 10: Mideast civil wars end in one of three ways: a) like the U.S. civil war, with one side vanquishing the other; b) like the Cyprus civil war, with a hard partition and a wall dividing the parties; or c) like the Lebanon civil war, with a soft partition under an iron fist (Syria) that keeps everyone in line. Saddam used to be the iron fist in Iraq. Now it is us. If we don't want to play that role, Iraq's civil war will end with A or B.

Rule 11: The most underestimated emotion in Arab politics is humiliation. The Israeli-Arab conflict, for instance, is not just about borders. Israel's mere existence is a daily humiliation to Muslims, who can't understand how, if they have the superior religion, Israel can be so powerful. Al Jazeera's editor, Ahmed Sheikh, said it best when he recently told the Swiss weekly Die Weltwoche: "It gnaws at the people in the Middle East that such a small country as Israel, with only about 7 million inhabitants, can defeat the Arab nation with its 350 million. That hurts our collective ego. The Palestinian problem is in the genes of every Arab. The West's problem is that it does not understand this."

Rule 12: Thus, the Israelis will always win, and the Palestinians will always make sure they never enjoy it. Everything else is just commentary.

Rule 13: Our first priority is democracy, but the Arabs' first priority is "justice." The oft-warring Arab tribes are all wounded souls, who really have been hurt by colonial powers, by Jewish settlements on Palestinian land, by Arab kings and dictators, and, most of all, by each other in endless tribal wars. For Iraq's long-abused Shiite majority, democracy is first and foremost a vehicle to get justice. Ditto the Kurds. For the minority Sunnis, democracy in Iraq is a vehicle of injustice. For us, democracy is all about protecting minority rights. For them, democracy is first about consolidating majority rights and getting justice.

Rule 14: The Lebanese historian Kamal Salibi had it right: "Great powers should never get involved in the politics of small tribes."

Rule 15: Whether it is Arab-Israeli peace or democracy in Iraq, you can't want it more than they do.

Thomas Friedman has the place figured out. And in my humble opinion, it all comes down to the application of Rule 15: You can't want it more than they do. Arabs, Palestinians, Israelis, and Muslims all want peace. It's just that everybody wants it on his own terms.

And that just ain't gonna happen.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

Cartoon Saturday

A man armed with an assault rifle, two handguns and a shotgun killed three people and wounded five at his office in St Louis; in Angola, a bus carrying the Togolese national soccer team to a tournament in Angola was riddled with bullets by unidentified attackers; the date of President Obama's first State of the Union address has been changed because of popular outrage that it would interfere with the season premiere of the final season of the hit TV show Lost; a young woman who once modeled for Playboy magazine has been identified by Miami police as the person found dead and "burned beyond recognition" in a trash bin; and according to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Obama administration is making a renewed push for Mideast peace, stepping up pressure on Israelis and Palestinians to reach an agreement...which will no doubt be as successful as every other push for Mideast peace (but more on that tomorrow).

If it weren't for Cartoon Saturday, how would you cope?

The biggest news is, of course, the weather, which is as cold as (insert joke here). How cold is it? A few cartoonists have their opinions...

Yep...it's cold...
A quick look at the weather map tells the story...

You may have to think about this one for a minute, but it's worth it...

Okay, enough about the weather. How about a dose of just plain silly...?

It wouldn't be Cartoon Saturday without taking a jab at the health care industry, would it...?

And finally, apropos of the linked story above about yet another push for a Mideast settlement, who can ever understand these stupid people? Cartoonist Pat Oliphant has them nailed...the comment by the little birds at the bottom is the best part...

And that's it for this week's Cartoon Saturday. It looks like a good weekend to stay inside by the fire, wrapped in a quilt, with a cup of hot chocolate, a good book, and a stack of DVDs. After all, here in Disneyland on the Potomac, it's so cold outside that I saw a Congressman with his hands in his own pockets.

Have a good day. Stay warm. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

Calculating Fines

Who among us has not engaged in a little speeding...looking at the sign that says "Speed Limit XX" and deciding that it really doesn't apply to us. We're special, after all. Perhaps we're Hollywood celebrities, or well-connected and wealthy, or Members of Congress...or perhaps just ordinary people looking for a bit of quasi-innocent naughtiness.

Don't do it in Switzerland.

According to this article in Yahoo News, a Swiss court has fined a Swiss millionaire a record sum of $290,000 for driving as much as 35 mph over the posted 50 mph speed limit. The fine was based, per Swiss law, on the malefactor's estimated wealth of over $20,000,000.

I expect he'll appeal, don't you?

So, proceeding from this interesting data point, one might ask how fines would be calculated for various offenders here in the good old US of A if the individual's net worth were used as a basis for the levy.

How much would we fine our elected reprehensives who adjusted the laws to make it possible for the financial mismanagement industry to loot the economy? Let's see...an average member of Congress earns $174,000 per year. The Swiss benchmark for fine calculation seems to be about 1.45% of net worth, so we might assess each member of Congress 1.45% of $174,000, or about $2,500. Multiplied by 535 members, we get the grand total of $1,337,500.

Oh, heck, it's not worth it...the government spends that much money in the amount of time it takes to type it out. Even if we add in a fine based on the President's salary of $400,000, it adds only another $5,800 to the total. A good lobbyist can get that much out of Congress without even getting out of bed.

Let's just forget the whole thing. Except for the part about not speeding in Switzerland. Or in any residential neighborhoods here at home.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

Attorney Season

Driven to distraction by perversions of the legal system? Astounded by how fast the lawsuits proliferate in the wake of any accident or terrorist attack? Amazed that lawyers would be willing to touch evil terrorists with a ten-foot pole, much less defend them? Wish you could do something about it?

Write to your local delegate to support the proposed new law governing the hunting of lawyers in Virginia (where there are more lawyers than deer, and that's saying a lot). Here, as a public service, is the text of the proposed legislation:

Proposed Virginia 2010 Attorney Season Regulations

Section 1300.01 - General

1. Any person with a valid Virginia hunting license may harvest attorneys.

2. Taking of attorneys with traps or deadfalls is permitted. The use of currency as bait is prohibited.

3. Killing of attorneys with a vehicle is prohibited. If accidentally struck, remove dead attorney to roadside and proceed to nearest car wash.

4. It is unlawful to chase, herd, or harvest attorneys from a snow machine, helicopter, or aircraft.

5. It shall be unlawful to shout "whiplash," "ambulance," or "free Perrier" for the purpose of trapping attorneys.

6. It shall be unlawful to hunt attorneys within 100 yards of BMW dealerships.

7. It shall be unlawful to use cocaine, young boys, $100 bills, prostitutes, or vehicle accidents to attract attorneys.

8. It shall be unlawful to hunt attorneys within 200 yards of courtrooms, law libraries, whorehouses, health spas, ambulances, or hospitals.

9. If an attorney is elected to government office, it shall be a felony to hunt, trap, or possess it.

10. Stuffed or mounted attorneys must have a state health department inspection for rabies and vermin.

11. It shall be illegal for a hunter to disguise himself as a reporter, drug dealer, pimp, female legal clerk, sheep, accident victim, bookie, or tax accountant for the purpose of hunting attorneys.

Don't forget - let your elected reprehensives know what you think!

No, wait! They're all lawyers, anyhow.

Never mind.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

Farmers to the Rescue?

I found this very interesting article yesterday: Can Farming Save Detroit?

Detroit, of course, is the very poster child for dying cities - the collapse of the auto industry and years of mismanagement have left it a decaying shell of the vibrant city it once was. With the economy in its current state, there isn't much chance of reviving Detroit any time soon...so why not turn it into a giant farm? A man named John Hantz thinks this is a good idea, because it could "...restore big chunks of tax-delinquent, resource-draining urban blight to pastoral productivity; provide decent jobs with benefits; supply local markets and restaurants with fresh produce; attract tourists from all over the world; and -- most important of all -- stimulate development around the edges as the local land market tilts from stultifying abundance to something more like scarcity and investors move in."

Personally, I think it's a great idea. Rather than having a vast area of dilapidated and unproductive buildings that serve only as breeding grounds for crime, tear them down, plow up the land, and start growing things.

Of course, farming is hard work. Where will the farmers come from? Small family farms have been going out of business for years, leaving the giant agribusiness firms to take their places. Will they be interested in farming the ruins of Detroit or other failing cities? It's an interesting question, and one that may be a key to land use in the 21st century.

Read the article, and imagine yourself in bib overalls with a pitchfork in your hand.

It may be the picture of the future.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

The Banned Words List

Each year for the last 35, the faculty and staff of Lake Superior State University has published its list of Words Banished from the Queen's English for Mis-use, Over-use and General Uselessness. A word or phrase earns its place on the list for being, as the title of the list indicates, misused, overused, or generally useless. It's a word or phrase so annoying or overused that it makes your grammatical and semantic gorge rise. The list of banished words/phrases for 2010 (with my comments added) includes:

1. "Shovel-ready" - I actually don't mind this expression, because it's useful in discussing almost anything dealing with Congress. You need a very big shovel, of course.

2. Transparent/Transparency - best comment on this word was from a wag who said, "I just don't see it."

3. Czar - Ivan the Terrible was a czar. Everyone else is a cheap knockoff. 'Nuff said.

4. Tweet - Birds tweet. People who tweet should be called "twits."

5. App - Short for "application." Also short for "appallingly overused."

6. Sexting - Refering to the transmission of sexually explicit messages and photos by phone. The word is just as stupid as the activity.

7. Friend (used as a verb) - The actual verb is "befriend." Why not use it...it's only one more syllable.

8. "Teachable Moment" - We used to call them "lessons."

9. "In These Economic Times ..." - Just dumb. All times are these times. It's just that in these times we want tar and feathers for the members of the financial mismanagement industry. No further comment necessary.

10. Stimulus - A picture of a beautiful lady in a nice dress is a stimulus. Vast quantities of money hurled at mismanaged industries to allow them to continue to mismanage at our expense are not.

11. "Toxic Assets" - I prefer "bad debts." If it's an asset, it's a good thing by definition. This is a world-champion oxymoron.

12. "Too Big to Fail" - The government is willing to bail out industries too big to fail, but not to help individuals too small to notice...like you and I.

13. Bromance - this one is so stupid I can't even think of a snarky comment. What's wrong with good old "friendship?" Just flush it.

14. Chillaxin' - combines "chilling (out)" and "relaxing." Utterly pointless. A waste of ink just to comment on how stupid it is.

15. "Obama" (when used as a prefix, generally with a negative intent, as in "Obamacare," "Obamanomics," etc). We also had "Reaganomics," also generally used in a negative context, but the overblown use of "Obama" as a prefix has gone far beyond the bounds of satire or good sense. You don't like the President. Okay, he was elected. Get over it.

Any other words or phrases you'd like to add? I'm ready to hear them...

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

Donating Blood

Both John and Mike have blogged in the last few days about donating blood. Imitation being the sincerest form of flattery (and lacking a good original idea for this morning), I thought I'd add my own story on the subject.

I used to donate blood regularly when I was in college and in the Air Force. I didn't make it to the ten-gallon level, but I was getting close...it was a good thing to do, and the free coffee, orange juice, and cookies were too good to pass up. I had to stop for a few years after I finished a temporary assignment to a particular location which - according to the Red Cross - made my blood temporarily undesirable, and after that I sort of got out of the rhythm of donating. I know I should start again, and perhaps now is a good time.

Anyhow, here is my favorite blood donation story...

This took place while I was a student back at Penn State in the early 1970's - a much skinnier version of the robust fellow I am today. I reported to the blood donation center and ended up on a table next to one of the well-known members of the Penn State Nittany Lions football team - a fellow who outweighed my by at least a hundred pounds and was big enough to warp gravity in his immediate vicinity. The nurses were all fawning over him, and he was (of course) enjoying the attention. I just laid there and bled, quietly and obscurely, into my bag.

The football player and I finished filling our bags at the same time, and each sat up on the table for a few moments before walking over to the snack area for the free orange juice and cookies. When the nurses thought we were ready, they took us each by the elbow to help us down from the table...we hopped down...

...and the mighty football player's eyes rolled up in his head, he passed out, and fell to the floor with a mighty crash, while skinny Bilbo trotted proudly to the snack bar.

This is what the Germans call Schadenfreude.

But don't let that stop you...donate blood. It really is the gift of life.

Time to get dressed and head back to work...the holidays are over. Sigh. And the worst part is that Mike will probably make some snarky comment about being retired.

Double sigh.

Have a good day. Donate blood. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

Praise the Lord and Pass the ... uh ... New Laws

During the Second World War, Frank Loesser wrote a popular song titled "Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition." It was written in response to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, and told the story of a chaplain (known in military slang as a sky pilot) whose ship was under enemy air attack. The sailors asked him to say a prayer for them while they fired at the attacking planes, whereupon the chaplain put down his Bible, jumped into one of the ship's gun turrets, and began firing back at the enemy, shouting, "Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition!"

It was a very popular song at the time, and goes to the heart of the rather rocky relationship between violence and religion. The sacred writings of most religions offer some variant on the commandment "Thou shalt not kill," but also put an asterisk next to it to indicate the various loopholes (self-defense, participation in a "just war," "jihad," "getting rid of "infidels," and so on). Some religions urge the penalty of death for blasphemy, defined by Merriam Webster's Online Dictionary as, "1 a : The act of insulting or showing contempt or lack of reverence for God; b : The act of claiming the attributes of deity. 2 : Irreverence toward something considered sacred or inviolable." In his famous "Devil's Dictionary," Ambrose Bierce defined the related word impiety as "Your irreverence toward my deity."

Be patient, I'm getting to the point.

Mike beat me to a discussion of the law which came into effect in Ireland on January 1st, which makes blasphemy a crime punishable by a €25,000 ($35,800) fine. According to CNN (see the link in the last sentence), the law makes it a crime to say or publish anything "grossly abusive or insulting in relation to matters held sacred by any religion, thereby causing outrage among a substantial number of the adherents of that religion."

Now, Ireland is a traditionally Catholic country, and the Catholic Church takes a dim view of blasphemy, as do many other religions. But it's very clear to me that the purpose of the law is not so much to prevent the denigration of religious beliefs in general as it is to protect Ireland's people and economy from the sort of violent reactions that come from the Muslim world whenever there is a hint of criticism of Islamic beliefs in general or of the prophet Mohammed in particular. The violent reactions to Pope Benedict's speech at Regensburg in 2006 (in which he appeared to criticize Mohammed in the context of a scholarly discussion of reason and faith), the death sentence imposed on author Salman Rushdie by Ayatollah Khomeini of Iran over Rushdie's allegedly blasphemous book The Satanic Verses, and the widespread Islamic outrage and violence over the infamous Danish cartoons in 2005 are still fresh in the minds of countries with substantial Muslim minorities.

Is it wrong to criticize the deeply-held religious beliefs of another? What constitutes punishable criticism or blasphemy (could "Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition" be considered blasphemous)? What punishment is appropriate? Who decides? In a country like Saudi Arabia, there's no question about any of these: it's illegal to build a church or practice any religion other than Islam. Compare this to overwhelmingly Catholic Ireland, which not only has a relatively small Muslim population, but also a mosque and community center in Dublin to serve it.

Is it right to deliberately insult someone's religious beliefs? It may be boorish and mean-spirited, but should it be illegal in the context of a pluralistic society? I think not.

As John pointed out in his comment on Mike's post, the only winners in this situation are the government that collects the fines and the lawyers who prosecute or defend the cases. Religion is a matter of the heart, but is all too often disconnected from the brain.

What we need are not laws, but common sense and a little bit of fallback to the Golden Rule. This may be difficult for adherents of a religion that absolutely believes it's right and everyone else is wrong and needs to be shown The Way, forcibly if necessary, but perhaps there's hope.

Until then, we'll see nations fall back on stupid laws.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

Cartoon Saturday

Welcome to the first Cartoon Saturday of the new year. And the new decade. You know you need it...

Ninety-three people were killed in Pakistan on Friday when a car bomb was detonated at a volleyball game; police in Denmark shot and arrested a Somali man armed with a knife and an axe who tried to break into the home of the cartoonist condemned by Muslims for insulting Mohammed with his cartoons; twenty-two people were killed and dozens injured when a rain-weakened mountain collapsed and buried a resort in Brazil; two Washington Wizards (remember when they used to be called the Bullets?) teammates drew guns on each other in a locker room dispute over a gambling debt; and 40,697 new state laws are scheduled to take effect in the new year.

Hang in there...Cartoon Saturday is still with you to help get you through the lunacy.

I'll take what's behind door number two...

Two cartoons riffing on the subject of Greek mythology. If you don't know the story of Medusa, check here...

And...

There's a silver lining for some inside the dark clouds of economic disaster and swine flu...

If you've been a parent on a long road trip...or if you just love stupid twists on ordinary situations, you can relate to this one...

And, finally, for those of you disappointed over what Hollywood did to your favorite book...

Welcome to 2010! If you're new to this blog - welcome! - hope you'll come back. If you're one of my regulars, you're in for more of the same. Aren't you lucky?

Have a good day. There are over 360 of them still to come in the new year.

More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

Recipe for a Happy New Year

Did you have a good time last night? I'm whispering in case you overdid the partying and imbibed a little too much of the bubbly.

Everything okay, then? Well, let's get on with 2010, which just has to be better than 2009...it could hardly be worse. Actually, for me 2009 wasn't all that bad, if you omit discussion of the twisted, smoking wreckage of my retirement savings and my seething rage over the despicable conduct of our elected reprehensives. I'm still healthy, I still have four (soon to be five) wonderful grandchildren, and I'm still married to the world's greatest lady (she has gone another year without killing me in my sleep). I got reacquainted with some great old and new friends from my high school class at our 40th reunion, enjoyed a nice vacation with Agnes, and discovered a great new author in Rennie Airth. So for me, things aren't bad.

But what can we do to help 2010 get off on the right foot, besides building a wall 500 feet high and 100 feet thick around the entire Middle East (including Somalia, while we're at it), filling the area thus enclosed to the top with sand, and starting over?

Yesterday in her wonderful blog, Miss Cellania offered this Recipe for a Happy New Year, which is probably worth trying out. After all, nothing else seems to work, as The Golden Rule seems to be utterly ignored by Congress, the financial mismanagement industry, Islamist radicals, and posturing political buffoons of all sorts...

Recipe for a Happy New Year

Take twelve, fine, full-grown months,
see that these are thoroughly free from all old memories of bitterness, rancor, hate and jealousy;
cleanse them completely from every clinging spite:
pick off all specks of pettiness and littleness;
in short, see that these months are freed from all the past;
have them as fresh and clean as when they first came from the great storehouse of Time.

Cut these months into thirty or thirty-one equal parts.
This batch will keep for just one year.
Do not attempt to make up the whole batch at one time (so many persons spoil the entire lot in this way), but prepare one day at a time, as follows:

Into each day put twelve parts of faith,
eleven of patience,
ten of courage,
nine of of work (some people omit this ingredient and so spoil the flavor of the rest),
eight of hope,
seven of fidelity,
six of liberality,
five of kindness,
four of rest (leaving this out is like leaving the oil out of the salad, don't do it),
three of prayer,
two of meditation,
and one well selected resolution.

put in about a teaspoonful of good spirits,
a dash of fun,
a pinch of folly,
a sprinkling of play, and a heaping cupful of good humor.

Pour in lots of love, mix with vigour.
Cook thoroughly in a fervent heat; garnish with a few smiles and a sprig of joy;
then serve with quietness, unselfishness, and cheerfulness,
and a Happy New Year is certain.

Try it out and let me know how it turns out for you. As recipes go, this one sounds pretty good.

Happy New Year! More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo