Tuesday, May 19, 2009

You're Breaking Up...

Well, not you, exactly.

According to this article from the Wall Street Journal, Russian academic and former KGB analyst Igor Panarin predicts that, in the near future, the United States will break up much as did the Former Soviet Union (known to those of us in defense and academic circles as the "FSU" (or fsoo)). Here is Mr Panarin's map predicting the future of the US:

Mr Panarin predicts that there's a 55-45% chance that the US will break up as he's foreseen. In his Wall Street Journal interview, he hypothesizes that "...mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar." Then, in late June or early July, 2010, the U.S. will break into six pieces as shown on the map.

Well...

I suppose that his hypothesis is at least partly plausible. Of course, the dollar has already partially imploded as a result of the ongoing economic crisis. How about the rest of it?

Alaska going to Russia? I think the Russians have been grouchy ever since Secretary of State Seward bought Alaska from them, and so this is plausible.

"The Texas Republic" belonging to Mexico or being under Mexican influence? Having just returned from San Antonio, where English is nearly a second language, I can see that. Of course, everything is coming up in Spanish here in Northern Virginia, too. Within twenty years, there probably won't be anybody left in Mexico or Central America, anyhow...they'll all be here.

"Atlantic America" to join the European Union? Hmmm...that's reasonable, as this covers most of the original 13 colonies which might be considered to be closer to the European "homeland" from which most of the original settlers of the northeastern part of the country came.

I don't buy the "Central North-American Republic" "becoming part of Canada or under Canadian influence," although it would probably have a hard time being an independent nation without access to the sea other than via the Great Lakes. It's possible, but I don't see it.

"The Californian Republic" is predicted to be part of China or under Chinese influence. Well, surprise! - the Chinese already own a large chunk of our economy. In the worst case, I could see China calling in all its chits and owning the whole country.

Is Mr Panarin right? Perhaps. But I think his prediction is a little off. I think it's more likely that the US will become a bilingual nation in virtual union with Mexico and Central America, if for no other reason than the enormous crush of illegal immigration from those areas that is creating demographic realities on the ground here.

What do you think? It's an interesting point of departure for discussion.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Oh, and vaya con Dios.

Bilbo

7 comments:

The Mistress of the Dark said...

If Russian wants Sarah Palin and her brood, I say give her to them

John said...

Looks like retiring to Mexico is going to be a lot easier than I thought. I can start looking for property 50 miles south of Ozark (in Arkansas) and it will be "mi casa es su casa" before you know it.

Mistress, I'm all for giving up Palin but let's keep the oil, eh?

fiona said...

Should I start learning Chinese!?
Maybe the Nail Salons will drop their prices!
More RTA's though...for SURE

Debbie said...

With the way Washington is devastating our economy in less than 6 months, and our American way of life for generations to come with historic debt...this may be a possibility before 2010! However I think Alaska will be owned by OPEC so they can tap our oil. Look for the Texas region to be "gifted" to Nicaragua. One smart move before 2010 would be to have the Army Corps of Engineers salt the fault line in California with explosives and just put it in the Pacific. NY will definitely go to the Sicilian godfathers or worse yet made soveriegn territory for the UN. Florida will given to Cuba as a gesture of good will. And GITMO will be refurbished as a beach side Presidential retreat. The mind just reels what more this Administration could do.

Mike said...

Is this the same guy that predicted the Dow Jones hitting 35,000? Or maybe his cousin?

Amanda said...

Thats an interesting split. Perhaps it will make it easier for people like me to visit the US. Right now its pricey and requires an interview!

SusieQ said...

Do you really think Canada would have anything to do with Detroit now?

Seriously, I don't put much stock in Panarin's predictions. But just in case, think I'll start investing in gold.