You're Breaking Up...

Well, not you, exactly.

According to this article from the Wall Street Journal, Russian academic and former KGB analyst Igor Panarin predicts that, in the near future, the United States will break up much as did the Former Soviet Union (known to those of us in defense and academic circles as the "FSU" (or fsoo)). Here is Mr Panarin's map predicting the future of the US:

Mr Panarin predicts that there's a 55-45% chance that the US will break up as he's foreseen. In his Wall Street Journal interview, he hypothesizes that "...mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar." Then, in late June or early July, 2010, the U.S. will break into six pieces as shown on the map.

Well...

I suppose that his hypothesis is at least partly plausible. Of course, the dollar has already partially imploded as a result of the ongoing economic crisis. How about the rest of it?

Alaska going to Russia? I think the Russians have been grouchy ever since Secretary of State Seward bought Alaska from them, and so this is plausible.

"The Texas Republic" belonging to Mexico or being under Mexican influence? Having just returned from San Antonio, where English is nearly a second language, I can see that. Of course, everything is coming up in Spanish here in Northern Virginia, too. Within twenty years, there probably won't be anybody left in Mexico or Central America, anyhow...they'll all be here.

"Atlantic America" to join the European Union? Hmmm...that's reasonable, as this covers most of the original 13 colonies which might be considered to be closer to the European "homeland" from which most of the original settlers of the northeastern part of the country came.

I don't buy the "Central North-American Republic" "becoming part of Canada or under Canadian influence," although it would probably have a hard time being an independent nation without access to the sea other than via the Great Lakes. It's possible, but I don't see it.

"The Californian Republic" is predicted to be part of China or under Chinese influence. Well, surprise! - the Chinese already own a large chunk of our economy. In the worst case, I could see China calling in all its chits and owning the whole country.

Is Mr Panarin right? Perhaps. But I think his prediction is a little off. I think it's more likely that the US will become a bilingual nation in virtual union with Mexico and Central America, if for no other reason than the enormous crush of illegal immigration from those areas that is creating demographic realities on the ground here.

What do you think? It's an interesting point of departure for discussion.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Oh, and vaya con Dios.

Bilbo