What We Can Learn from Cotton Mather

This past Saturday was the birthday (in 1663) of Puritan clergyman and writer Cotton Mather, a major intellectual figure in early America. Mather was noted for, among other things, his participation in the Salem Witchcraft Trials and his endorsement of vaccination as a way of controlling smallpox*.

It was Mather's role in the Salem Witchcraft Trials that caught my attention as I was reading up on historical events for February 12th for the daily summary I publish on my Facebook page - in particular his endorsement of the use of "spectral evidence" – evidence visible only to the witnesses themselves. Although he approved of the use of such clearly questionable evidence, he warned the judges "... not (to) lay more stress on pure spectral evidence than it will bear … It is very certain that the Devils have sometimes represented the shapes of persons not only innocent, but also very virtuous.”

Spectral evidence is still important today as Republicans employ it in frantic efforts to overturn the results of a presidential election they decisively lost. It can be seen in the refusal of election deniers to accept completely rational explanations of what they believe is obvious evidence of the massive fraud clearly visible to them, but invisible to everyone else.

What does it say about modern America that a stern fire-and-brimstone Puritan clergyman of the 17th century was smarter and more public health minded than many of our fellow citizens?

Have a good day. More thoughts coming.

Bilbo

* Some people were a lot smarter about public health in the 1600s than they are now.

Things Are Better Than You Think

If you listen to the apocalyptic rhetoric coming out of Donald Trump and the GOP, you'd think the world was coming to an end, with armed gangs of Islamic terrorists roaming the streets and murdering people at will, armed gangs of Mexicans stealing American jobs when they aren't busy raping American citizens, and hordes of screaming, wild-eyed liberals frantic to give away to the unwashed undeserving everything Hard-Working Americans^TM have struggled to build.

The reality looks a bit different, although you won't find it on Faux News or any of the GOP ads.

That's not to say that there aren't things wrong in America, but that the picture is not so bleak as the screaming heads would have you believe.

I call your attention to this interesting recent article by Peter Diamandis: Why the World Is Better Than You Think in 10 Powerful Charts. Mr Diamandis writes,

"We humans are wired to pay 10x more attention to negative news than positive news. Being able to rapidly notice and pay attention to negative news (like a predator or a dangerous fire) was an evolutionary advantage to keep you alive on the savannas of Africa millions of years ago. Today, we still pay more attention to negative news, and the news media knows this. They take advantage of it to drive our eyeballs to their advertisers. Typically, good news networks fail as businesses. It's not that the news media is lying — it's just not a balanced view of what's going on in the world."

I'd never thought about the evolutionary advantage of noticing negatives first, and how that might play into the way our news media operate. The old news editor's admonition that "if it bleeds, it leads" is the product of millions of years of evolution.

So, why are things better than we're being led to believe? The charts Mr Diamandis includes in his article spell them out. Here are two examples:

Other charts document the decline in the number of teenage pregnancies in the US, the decline in the US violent crime rate*, and the declining percentage of income spent on food in the United States**.

There are two charts, though, that seem to me to provide counterintuitive information:

Although the average number of years of education is going up steadily, modern Americans can be abysmally stupid, particularly when deeply held religious beliefs contradict established science. And while literacy rates are going up around the world, it seems that fewer and fewer people in this country actually read widely and absorb a broad range of ideas ... the idea of the modern media echo chamber applies.

Anyway, things are better than many people would have you believe. Think about that when you parse the information that the bad news cheerleaders are giving you. And if you need another chart to help put this in perspective, check out this diagram by Jessica Hagy from her wonderful blog, Indexed ...

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

* Despite the recent spate of mass shootings, the violent crime rate is actually going down. Obviously, the reasons for this depend on the political leanings of the observer: the gun lobby tells us it's because criminals are afraid of retaliatory action by an armed victim, while others would suggest that we're becoming more law-abiding. Take your pick.

** This seems counterintuitive here in NoVa, where prices for fresh meats, fruits, and vegetables are often stratospheric.

Conspiracy Theories

In 2006, commentator Thomas Friedman listed his "Mideast Rules to Live By," which was his attempt to help people in the rest of the world understand the byzantine politics and beliefs of people in that troubled region. Rule #3 (out of a total of 15) was this:

"If you can’t explain something to Middle Easterners with a conspiracy theory, then don’t try to explain it at all — they won’t believe it."

There are indeed a lot of really bizarre conspiracy theories swirling around the social and political cesspool of the Middle East, most of them blaming every ill of the region since the expulsion from Eden on the evil machinations of the CIA*. Unfortunately, belief in off-the-wall conspiracy theories is not limited to the Middle East.

In what passes for political discussion in modern America, some of the most bizarre and outrageous conspiracy theories are gaining traction on the part of people suffering from a lack of independent thought, education, good judgment, or common sense**.

How about this one: the Jack-Booted Thugs^TM of the ATF are going to swoop down and confiscate guns owned by law-abiding Americans so the country can be taken over by the UN.

Now, consider that we have somewhere around 11 million illegal aliens living more-or-less openly in this country. The All-Powerful Evil Government^TM is unable to identify and deport these 11 million people, very few of whom are likely to shoot back. Now consider whether the All-Powerful Evil Government^TM is likely to be able to confiscate an estimated 300 million guns*** from a paranoid and enraged population fired up by far-right propaganda****.

Yea, probably not all that likely.

And that's probably the least of the wild conspiracy theories flying around out there. I found this wonderful guide to "Almost Every Obama Conspiracy Theory Ever" to help you sort through the muck ...

If you follow the link, you can find details of all the individual theories about the President shown in the chart. Be sure to put on your tinfoil hat before you start reading.

Don't thank me ... it's all part of helping you keep what's left of your sanity in a world where real information and rational discussion are endangered species.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

* And there's probably some imam over there preaching in his madrassah that the CIA planted the apple tree and drugged Eve, too. And just down the street is his ultra-ultra-ultra orthodox neighbor who believes women's clothing not made with 175 yards of heavy canvas is a CIA plot as well. Oy.

** Usually all of the above.

*** No one knows for sure, because there are no standardized requirements for tracking gun sales and ownership. The 300 million figure is a best estimate based on FBI and ATF data. 

**** And in violation of the Constitution, to boot!