Extinction-Level Events

You've probably seen the building hysteria in some circles about the dangers of artificial intelligence (AI). Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, recently suggested that there was a 10% chance that uncontrolled AI could cause human extinction by the end of the decade*, and other AI moguls have called for a global slowdown in AI development ... even going so far as to - gasp! - ask for government regulation of the industry**. 

Personally, I think that uncontrolled natural stupidity (see, MAGA) is a far greater threat than uncontrolled AI, but I understand the potential dangers.

Threats to humanity from uncontrolled technology are a staple of science fiction, going back at least as far as the classic 1966 novel "Colossus" by D.F. Jones, later filmed as "Colossus: The Forbin Project." The story looked at the unforeseen consequences of turning control of the United States' nuclear weapons to a dispassionate computer (Colossus) that would eliminate the chance that human fears and emotions could lead to war. Things go off the rails when Colossus discovers it has a Soviet equivalent named "Guardian." The two begin to talk and ... well ... let's just say it doesn't go well for humanity ...

A year later, Harlan Ellison wrote the terrifying sci-fi/horror story "I Have No Mouth, and I Must Scream" ...

The Terminator film franchise which began in 1984 is the most recent variation on the theme, envisioning a future world dominated by sentient machines (some with thick Austrian German accents) seeking to eliminate all humans ...

So, how big a threat is AI? I see it as a threat in varying degrees on several levels. 

First is its voracious appetite for data, which has led to the rapid spread of giant "data centers" across the country. This might not, by itself, be a "threat," as it has certainly led to huge employment gains for the construction firms, skilled electrical workers, and electronic equipment suppliers needed to build and outfit the facilities. But, as we have seen, these centers gobble up land, need vast amounts of increasingly-scarce water for cooling, send electricity costs for local consumers soaring, and tend to produce a level of noise that can pose a health threat. The growing pushback from many localities indicates that the potential danger is being recognized.

Second, the use of AI tools in education threatens a dumbing-down of students who find that they can just let ChatGPT or Claude or some other AI tool do their research, write their papers, and spare them the trouble of thought that detracts from time available for gaming or other recreational activities. When the AI tools help to find useful information the student can use, they are no more problematic than the old-fashioned literature review people of my generation learned to do in our pursuit of advanced degrees. But when the tools do the research and the thinking, students don't learn ... they parrot.

Related to this is the negative impact of AI on the creative process***. The use of AI tools to "create" derivative works based on the work of writers and artists are a topic of growing legal concern, even if they are not yet an extinction-level event for human creativity. 

Third is the economic impact, which is evident on several levels. First, employers are learning that many entry-level white-collar and clerical jobs can be done more cheaply (after initial investment) by AI, potentially eliminating many of the lower-level jobs that were once entries into the corporate world. Second, the enormous amounts of money being spent on data centers and supporting equipment and software mean less money available for smaller businesses. Also, the tax breaks offered by many communities to attract data centers increase the tax burden on individuals and other businesses.

Next is the threat that everyone is worrying about at the moment - the use of AI tools to develop terrible weapons, and the ability of advanced AI tools to approach sentience and compete with, if not physically threaten humans (cue the Terminator theme). While there's legitimate disagreement about how serious this threat actually is, it's certainly not negligible, and needs to be taken seriously. What compounds this threat is that no one is actually taking it seriously: not the AI industry, which fears being placed at a competitive disadvantage by slowing down and thinking the risks through; not Congress, which is taking nothing seriously; and not the consumers who are enamored of the latest shiny object.

So, riddle me this, Batman: just how real a threat is AI?

Bilbo's short answer: in the medium term, a moderate threat to our existence as a species. In the short term, not nearly as dangerous as an unhinged and uncontrolled president is to the existence of our democracy.

Have a good day. Let's fix the immediate problem first, then the sci-fi one.

More thoughts coming.

Bilbo

* Spoiler: that's only four years away.

** The competition is too intense and there's too much money to be made for the companies to regulate themselves.

*** Full disclosure: I have written a short novel which is posted to a creative/derivative fiction website (contact me if you're interested in reading a horror story based on the work of H. P. Lovecraft). In writing my story, I used ChatGPT to generate a few illustrations. 

January 6th

One year ago today, Agnes and I watched in horror as a violent, howling mob stormed the United States Capitol in an attempt to stop Congress from certifying the results of the 2020 election. The mob, invited to the city by Der Furor and enraged by his baseless claims of election fraud, did more than a million dollars worth of damage to the Capitol Building itself, resulted in five deaths and countless injuries, and stained forever the reputation of the United States as a place where power changed hands in an orderly and lawful fashion. Rioters roamed the halls of the Capitol searching for elected officials while the crowd chanted "Hang Mike Pence" - the former Vice President who had resisted calls to overturn the election results.

But as bad as the day was - and make no mistake, it was terrible - even worse was what it revealed about many of our fellow citizens. Today, a year after the event, most Republicans continue to believe - in absence of any shred of credible evidence - that the election was fraudulent, Biden is an illegitimate president, and Der Furor should be placed back in office.

Der Furor did not himself cause the wave of bizarre hatred, twisted conspiracy theories, and racist behavior that erupted during his reign, but he gave license to those traits that had been suppressed during eras of better leadership. His childish and petulant behavior and encouragement let others know that such behavior was now acceptable ... that it was actually truly American. At the close of his first inaugural address, President Abraham Lincoln said,

We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.

Sadly, Der Furor and his like represent the worst angels, the fallen angels, of our nature.

They must not prevail.

This is the lesson of January 6th, 2021.

Have a good day. More thoughts coming.

Bilbo

Saving the World

We know that the world is a dangerous place. Just consider a few of the dangers we face every day:

- Mass Shootings. Of course, these are not as bad as we think, because we now know that guns have nothing at all to do with them ... the problem is drugged-up crazy people lured by the irresistible siren song of "gun-free zones" ... lock up the crazy people, eliminate gun-free zones, and get more guns into circulation and the problem will solve itself ...

- Environmental Catastrophe. When there's a vast floating island of trash known as the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, when China's air quality is so terrible that the government deliberately understates the degree of pollution, and when even the Pope warns that you're wrecking the planet, it's probably time to worry.

- Economic Collapse. If you're part of the Great Unwashed, this should probably worry you more than it does.

- The 2016 Presidential Election. Donald Trump. Ben Carson. Ted Cruz. Need I say more?

- Gay Marriage. Oh, wait ... never mind that one. It's fixed.

Yes, we  have plenty of things to worry about, but although no useful action will ever be taken on gun violence, the garbage will continue to mount, the economy will lurch along from crisis to crisis, and we'll elect the windbag who tells us what we want to hear*, there are some terribly dangerous things that we actually are doing something about.

Well, not we as in the sense of all of us ... we in the sense of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). You may be murdered by someone exercising his Second Amendment rights, choke on polluted air, die from eating tainted meat, lose everything in the next stock market crash, or endure a hyperconservative GOP presidency, but NASA is working to protect you from a real and clear threat: Giant Killer Asteroids ...

Yes, Dear Readers, this recent CNN article describes how NASA is planning to protect us from the cataclysmic threat of Giant Killer Asteroids (or "GKAs," for short) by developing technologies to nudge them aside, causing them to change trajectory and miss the earth ... making it possible for us to destroy the planet on our own, without outside assistance.

Of course, there are other options for dealing with this cosmic threat. One would be to announce that the GKA is preparing to stake a claim in the Spratley Islands, whereupon the Chinese government would immediately mobilize its Navy and police forces to keep it away.

Another approach would be to announce that the GKA will pose a clear and present danger to ethnic Russians when it lands. Russian President Vladimir Putin would immediately take action - secretly, of course - to cause so much trouble for the asteroid that it would go someplace else**.

Yet another tactic might be to let it be known that there isn't a single Starbucks location on the asteroid. Starbucks would immediately build coffee bars every few hundred feet on the surface of the GKA creating enough change in its drag coefficient*** to divert its course away from the Earth.

NASA could drop a hint to the NRA that the GKA isn't real, but is actually a cynical distraction to divert attention from the Jack-Booted Government Thugs^TM coming to confiscate everyone's guns. The enormous howls of anger and outrage would generate a vast pressure wave in the atmosphere that would easily shove the asteroid at least back out to the orbit of Neptune.

And if all else fails, we could always launch giant tubes of Preparation A to crash on the surface and shrink the asteroid to less painful dimensions.

Do you have any other ideas? Leave a comment.

Have a good day. If you see an enormous fireball coming out of the sky straight at you, duck. More thoughts tomorrow.

* Or what most lines up with our preconceived ideas.

** The CIA believes that the mess Putin has created in Ukraine is actually a field test of his Giant Killer Asteroid Protection Scheme.

*** The "drag coefficient" is a dimensionless quantity that is used to quantify the drag or resistance of an object in a fluid environment, such as air or water; it does not refer to the appearance of an object inappropriately dressed in female clothing.