Random observations and comments from the Fairfax County, Virginia, Curmudgeon-at-Large.
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
I've always been puzzled by the way economic data can be tortured to force it to support any desired conclusion. It never ceases to amaze me that an accountant can use two different accounting systems on the same set of data and show a profit with one (for the benefit of the stockholders) and a loss with the other (for the tax collector). I often wonder which sort of accounting system our Federal government uses to come up with its budgetary policies.
My friend Jake and I long ago agreed to disagree on the efficacy of Republican trickle-down economic theories: Jake confidently cites various authoritative studies which purport to show that cutting taxes actually increases government revenue; in a recent Washington Post article, I read of three different and (evidently) equally authoritative studies which show that revenue declines in the long term after the initial modest gains. Who's right? Can my economist beat up your economist?
These are important questions, especially because the numbers our government is crunching include the money you and I pay in taxes. If we ran our personal finances and kept our books the way the government runs its own, we'd probably be in jail. The government is spending tens of billions of dollars on the war in Iraq, but that money doesn't show up in the Federal budget...as I've noted before, it's all being done on the basis of emergency appropriations, which don't get the level of Congressional scrutiny that the main budget does. This is a budgetary option the average citizen doesn't have.
I wish I knew more about economics, and I'm trying to learn...but it's tough getting my mind around the endlessly-flexible concepts. German and Russian grammar I can understand, economic theories are something else.
More thoughts on economic theory and practice later. For now, have a good day...however you choose to crunch your numbers.
Bilbo
Tuesday, January 09, 2007
In the current (January-February 2007) issue of Foreign Affairs magazine, Dominique Moïsi takes Huntington's idea a step farther in an essay titled "The Clash of Emotions: Fear, Humiliation, Hope, and the New World Order." In this fascinating article, Moïsi postulates that current conflicts are fueled by emotions: fear in the US and Europe, humiliation in the Muslim world, and hope in Asia. He writes that fear - of an uncertain future and a loss of fundamental national identity - divides Europe and the US; humiliation unites the Islamic world around its most radical elements and leads to a culture of hatred; and hope drives the growing powers of Asia (notably China and India).
This is a very timely and thought-provoking article, and well worth your time in reading. Much has been written about the culture of humiliation as a driver of passions in the Islamic world, but this is the first time I've seen a cogent analysis of emotions as drivers of the international environment. Particularly interesting is Mr Moïsi's assessment of how it is not fear per se, but the response to it, which drives divisions between the United States and Europe: while Europe deals with its fears through escapism and appeasement, the US attacks perceived problems at their sources abroad (and often, as in Iraq, makes the root problems worse).
You can read a 500-word summary of this article on the Foreign Affairs website (www.foreignaffairs.org), or purchase a .pdf of it (for $5.95) if you don't want to buy the whole magazine. You can also find an extensive collection of articles by Dominique Moïsi and others at www.project-syndicate.org. Take the time to read and think about them, and then make up your own mind about the correct emotional lens through which to view the world.
Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.
Bilbo
Monday, January 08, 2007
The author of the Muslim Unity blog represents, I think, the prevailing attitude of much of the Islamic world. His entry of January 6th is titled Points Which Prove I Am Correct!. He writes: "Here are some points which will make you believe that what I say about the West (or White people of the West) is true:" (NOTE: I have not included the entire list, but these are some representative excerpts. I have reproduced them here as written.) -
- They are mostly drunk in pubs
- They don't value their own families and are usually at fights with their own families
- They don't believe in long term relationships and love
- They don’t respect the gift of their own body and use it like a tool which can be used by anybody
- Children are neglected and end up as very rowdy kids
- They commit lot of adultery and think it is a good thing
- There music mostly has abnormal people in it. So do their movies and television
- Their movies and media has plans to overthrow our culture by spreading their deadly tentacles into our culture
- They don't know to behave and dress properly
- They feel they are more superior then everybody else and practice a lot of racist activates.
- Their police force is unfair and unjust to non-Whities
- Whities can visit our countries easily but we can not visit their countries. Why should we allow them to visit our countries then?
- Look at this statistic: All the whities who have committed crimes against the innocent: Bush, Blair, Hitler, Attila the Hun, Columbus, Marco Polo, The Queen of England; Most soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan are whities too.
The author goes on to write, "I am not at all racist and have also agreed that some whities are good people, but then here we are referring to the ideology which comes along most of them. Let us together wipe out racism and such superior and imperialist methods adopted by them to suppress us just because we are non-whities."
This is a good example of how many Muslims view the West. It's not easy reading, but it's worth your time to see what much of the rest of the world believes. It may be laughable to us, but it's what they tell each other and it's what they believe. It resonates with much of the Third World.
Do a little surfing through the blogs and websites you wouldn't ordinarily visit. You'd be surprised what you can learn, and what opinions need to be overcome if the misnamed "Global War on Terrorism" will ever have a hope of success.
Have a good day. Read more.
More thoughts coming.
Bilbo
Sunday, January 07, 2007
The concept of shifting baselines was developed, and the term coined, by a biology professor named Daniel Purdy. According to the website devoted to the subject (http://ShiftingBaselines.org), "A baseline is a reference point from the past - how things used to be. If we allow these reference points to shift, we lose track of our standards, and eventually accept the degraded state as being 'natural.'"
Some shifting baselines are good, others are bad. On the positive side, we live longer, have access to safer and more varied and plentiful food supplies, and enjoy a range of recreational activities (and the time to enjoy them) that people a hundred years ago would never recognize. On the other hand, many baselines have fallen: pollution of all types has increased, inflation erodes the value of our earnings, commuting times have skyrocketed, and manners are much diminished even from the time of my childhood in the 1950's and 60's (the 60's not being remembered fondly by many of us who were there).
A baseline gives one a reference point from which to measure change. But if the baseline keeps being redefined downward, what does it say for the quality of life and the state of the planet? If we learn to accept steadily decreasing standards as the norm, where does it end? As the limbo dancer asks, how low can you go?
I've noted the concept of shifting baselines for years without having a name for it. I've noticed it in particular in the social skills arena - many people can't carry on an intelligent conversation on a topic not involving the latest TV shows or sports events, the good manners my parents trained into me and my siblings are harder to find, and the ability even of college-educated professional people to write clear and compelling prose is abysmal. But our baselines have shifted, and we recognize and accept this diminished state as the standard without even realizing that we've compromised an important part of our lives.
Baselines are important. They set the standard for what we accept, what we aspire to, and what we believe we should reject. If we accept that it's all right for baselines to shift downward...if we are willing to accept religious bigotry, crude manners, polluted air and water, mendacious politicians, constricted civil liberties, and poor writing, what else will we accept? How long will we redefine the lower limits of what's acceptable before we decide that enough is enough? Think about the idea of shifting baselines, and consider what diminished standards you yourself have come to accept as the norm. Maybe it's time to start taking a stand in small ways to move those baselines back up.
Which can only serve to make the world a better place for us. And, of course, for the grandchildren I love so much.
Have a good day. Expect more. More thoughts later.
Bilbo
Saturday, January 06, 2007
Courtesy of the US Air Force and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Jason has spent the last six months in Qatar, with side trips to various places in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other desirable locations. He missed the birth of his third child (see my post of September 23rd, 2006) and a goodly chunk of the lives of his other two children, but at least he's coming home safe and sound, which is more than is true for more than 3,000 other good young Americans.
I'm headed to the airport to greet him as he passes through en route to home and family, and I do so with a great sense of pride and love. In a nation full of self-absorbed young people who think they have better things to do than serve their country, it's good to know there are still people like my son (and unlike our Vice President, go figure) who are willing to stand up and be counted.
Welcome home, Jason!
Have a good day. More thoughts later.
Bilbo
Friday, January 05, 2007
With the passage of time, the development of the cartoon crisis has come into somewhat clearer focus, and the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) has just published an interesting study which traces the onset and growth of the crisis and shows how it was cynically used by many Arab governments to deflect Muslim anger from their shortcomings to the imagined Western onslaught against Islam, and by radical Muslim clerics to stoke popular anger against Christians and Jews. You can find the article, titled A Retrospective Study of the Unfolding of the Muhammand Cartoons Crisis and its Implications, on the MEMRI website - just click the link at the left and look for Report Number 313.
While you're there, look at MEMRI Special Dispatch Number 1412, titled 'Confronting the Death Arriving From the West' – Santa Claus in Algeria. It presents the translation of a Christmas Eve op-ed piece from an Algerian newspaper that depicts Santa Claus, that jolly, red-cheeked bringer of holiday cheer, as an example of the insidious Christian threat to Muslims.
It's very difficult for a person with a liberal Western education and values to understand the blindly passionate religious fervor of Muslims and their spring-loaded negative reaction to what we would perceive as innocent criticism, but it behooves each of us to make the effort. In a world that is growing increasingly polarized along religious lines, while we are mired in a war stoked in large part by religious fervor, the old adage know your enemy is more important than ever. Take the time to read the translations of Arabic publications offered at the MEMRI website, and pay attention to the better quality news reporting coming out of the Middle East. Our future is largely being shaped in this region which is largely opaque to most of us, so take every opportunity to learn more about it. It's enlightening, and it's scary.
Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.
Bilbo
Thursday, January 04, 2007
More than 3000 young American men and women have been killed and tens of thousands more terribly wounded on behalf of a population that now hates us. We have radicalized the Arab world (not a difficult chore in any case) and have created the threat the war was supposed to erase (at least, according to one version) - we have provided a training and proving ground for a new generation of jihadists who marry religious fervor with mindless violence.
But more than the deaths and mutilations of so many American service members, more than the deaths of countless thousands of Iraqis and the utter destruction of the country, has been the mortgaging of our children's and grandchildren's futures.
War isn't cheap, and Iraq is no exception. According to an article by Gordon Adams in the January 2nd Chicago Tribune, we are spending about $2 billion per week, $8 billion per month, heading for a total cost which will eventually pass $1 trillion. But you won't find any of this in the President's budget, nor will you easily be able to tell what the operations in Iraq actually cost.
The Iraq war is being funded through "emergency" funding authorizations, which do not appear in the Federal budget. Further, money is not appropriated for the war in Iraq, it's appropriated for the "Global War on Terror," making it impossible to tell what's being spent in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in Ponca City, Oklahoma for new surveillance cameras, or in Ocoee, Florida for police radios. Our government is not being honest with us.
What would you do with $2 billion per week, or $8 billion per month?
Our government could exercise its Constitutional responsibility to provide for the general welfare by spending that money on schools, health care, and critical infrastructure here at home, instead of spending it on a needless war conducted on behalf of a population which now despises us and has spun itself into a sewer of sectarian hatred.
It's too much to hope that the current administration will suddenly come clean with the American people. My grandchildren's future welfare is being squandered today on a war conducted for questionable reasons and paid for through dishonest fiscal sleight-of-hand. My biggest regret is that Mr Bush will not be able to run for President again, so that I could vote against him again.
It's time to cut our losses and leave Iraq. We've done all we can and more than we should on behalf of a population which has shown itself unwilling and unable to build a better life on the basis we gave them, and we should leave them to their own devices.
But we won't...which means that I'll go on seeing the terribly crippled young men and women being treated to VIP tours of the Pentagon, as if this would make up for the loss of their limbs in the service of a useless conflict. And I'll go on seeing my tax dollars being poured down the drain of a hopelessly mismanaged effort on the other side of the world, instead of being spent on the health and welfare of my grandchildren.
It's enough to make you cry.
More thoughts tomorrow.
Bilbo
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
During his execution last Saturday, a spectator using a smuggled cell phone took a clandestine video of the execution which revealed a hideous miscarriage of justice. Mr Hussein was taunted by the spectators, who turned the execution into a gruesome spectacle. In the end, what should have been a grave and solemn affair symbolizing the end of the dictator's life, punishment for his crimes, and the primacy of law in the new Iraq turned instead to an ugly demonstration of partisan vengeance that can only serve to rally support for Hussein's legacy and prolong the violence and misery that torture what's left of Iraq. And, naturally, the video almost immediately turned up on Al Jazeera and the Internet, ensuring that its influence would be felt across the Middle East in endless rotation.
While Mr Hussein certainly deserved his punishment (see my blog entry of December 28th for more thoughts on that), his shabby treatment in his final moments was inexcusable and bodes ill for the future of Iraq. What could have been an example of the rule of law was instead a further example of the insanely violent passions that were unleashed by the US invasion of Iraq. Instead of providing closure to an ugly era, the botched execution of Mr Hussein has only thrown more fuel on the fire of sectarian violence that has turned Iraq into a sewer of mindless religious and tribal hatreds.
And we're stuck in the middle, with no good way out.
Have a good day. More thoughts coming.
Bilbo
Tuesday, January 02, 2007
There was an interesting article on the CNN website yesterday titled "Does this HDTV make me look fat?" The point of the article was that television personalities are now concerned about how they look in closeups shot in the unforgiving clarity of high-definition television. This is, in general, harder for women; after all, we tend to expect men to look a bit more...uh...worn, whereas the ladies try much harder to conceal blemishes, wrinkles, and other things they think detract from their appearance. They worry about staying beautiful.
I think about beauty a lot, being married to a beautiful lady and having a beautiful daughter, a beautiful daughter-in-law, and a beautiful granddaughter. I also enjoy being surrounded by beautiful ladies while enjoying ballroom dancing. I appreciate feminine beauty.
But what does it really mean to be beautiful?
A comedian once said he didn't understand why we say beauty is only skin deep. That's deep enough, he maintained - what do you want, an adorable pancreas? And then there was the scene in Thomas Harris's novel Hannibal, in which Hannibal Lecter compliments Clarice Starling on how beautiful she looks, and she gently rebukes him with the words, "Looks are an accident, Dr Lecter."
What makes a woman beautiful?
The old adage is right: beauty really is in the eye of the beholder. What makes a lady beautiful to one man may turn off another (and of course, the same is true as ladies look at men). I, for instance, think it's enormously sexy for a lady to have hairy arms; many other men find this a turn-off. Some men would like to see every lady have breasts the size of the Capitol dome; I think it's far more attractive for a lady to have a pleasantly proportioned shape.
So where are we going with this discussion? My point is that everyone has his (or her) own concept of physical beauty, and not everyone will find the same person beautiful. In the end, beauty really is only skin deep. Many years ago I briefly dated a young woman who had every single physical attribute I found attractive. But the poor girl was just as dumb as the proverbial post...I literally couldn't talk with her about anything that I found interesting or important, because nothing beyond television, trashy novels, and shopping interested her. She was the quintessential Valley Girl.
In time, beauty fades. Hair turns gray (boy, do I know!), breasts sag, and waistlines magically expand (I know about that, too!). A relationship based only on physical attraction is a house built on shifting sand. If you don't look for the inner beauty to complement the outer beauty, for the compatibility that allows two people to grow old happily together, you'll never be happy.
I hope you can be as lucky as I, and find a beautiful and superbly intelligent lady to share your life. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy the search.
Have a good day. We'll get back to deeper thoughts tomorrow.
Bilbo
Monday, January 01, 2007
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Agnes and I competed as a Pro-Am couple, and enjoyed it very much. We danced in 15 heats over two days, and were very pleased with the outcome: two first-place finishes (American Gold Bolero and Fox Trot), 12 second-places (American Gold Swing, Rumba, Cha-Cha, Waltz, and Tango; International Bronze Rumba, Paso Doble, Cha-Cha, and Samba; and International Silver Viennese Waltz, Syllabus Quickstep and Open Quickstep); and one third-place (International Bronze Waltz). For those of you not familiar with competition ballroom dancing, those aren't bad results, particularly against very tough competition. In addition, the ability to watch ourselves on the video we had shot allows us to identify weak areas in our dancing and work on improving them.
We met lots of new and old friends, supported and cheered for each other, and welcomed the new year on a happy and crowded dance floor.
If you have never tried ballroom dancing for recreation or for sport, you should. It's fun, exciting, and a great way to spend time with great people. Check it out!
Tomorrow, I'll get back to the usual round of comments on events in the news. But for today, let's celebrate the end of the old year and the start of a - hopefully - better one.
Have a good day. More thoughts coming.
Bilbo