Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Today is Monday, January second, 2017; here in the United States, it's the official New Year's Day holiday, since the actual day fell on a Sunday.

Happy New Year, again!

The month of January is thought to have been named for the Roman god Janus, the god of beginnings and transitions, who was depicted as having two faces - one which looked back to the previous year, and another that looked ahead to the year to come ...

And so it is that I thought I'd start off the new year with a look back and a look ahead.

For a lot of reasons, 2016 was a terrible year. An unusually large number of celebrities died in the course of the year, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States, the melting of the arctic and antarctic ice caps continued at a disturbing pace, and common courtesy and civility in America suffered a sharp decline. 

Can 2017 be any improvement over 2016? I think it's unlikely. If we accept that lots of celebrities died in 2016 because they had reached a statistically-deadly age, then 2017 isn't likely to be much better on that front. As for the decline of civility and the ice caps, the election of Donald Trump appears likely to make both situations worse.

2017 will be my first full year as a retiree on Social Security and Medicare ... just in time for the GOP to start dismantling both programs. I'm lucky in a way, because I have a military pension (although there are no longer any guarantees about that, either), but living on a fixed income in NoVa is ... challenging.

Agnes and I are going to do our best to enjoy the retirement we've earned. We have a cruise to Hawaii planned for next month, with side trips to Los Angeles and San Diego, a trip to Williamsburg in April to watch our granddaughter Marcy march with her high-school band, a trip back to Germany, at least one trip to Dayton to visit our grandchildren out there, and a long-postponed visit to Niagara Falls. We'll stay busy.

I don't make New Year's resolutions, because they usually don't last more than a few days ... okay, minutes, but I do have general goals for the coming year.

- I plan to keep writing my blog every day as long as I can keep it interesting and the readership holds up.

- I plan to continue my effort to walk three to five miles per day for exercise.

- I will try not to embarrass Agnes too much.

- I will try to be the sort of wise and loving grandfather I never had (both of my grandfathers passed away before I was born).

- I will try to write more letters and document more of the family history so that my grandchildren know something of their background.

I think that's enough. There's no point in peaking too soon.

To you, Dear Readers, I wish the very happiest and safest of New Years, and I hope that you will continue to join me in this space every day as we navigate the rocky shoals of 2017 together.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

The Ass Clown of the Year for 2016

First of all, Happy New Year!

2016 was a terrible year for a lot of reasons - the number of noteworthy people who died during the course of the year and the election of the most manifestly unqualified person ever to run for president for starters. It was the easiest year ever in which to select the 26 Ass Clown awardees for this blog ... in fact, my biggest problem was in deciding where to set the cutoff line for qualifications.

The people have spoken, and I have received a huge number of responses to my call for votes for Ass Clown of the Year. For the first time since I've been presenting this award, the winner won in an incredible landslide - not even the most rabid Trumpian believer in vote rigging would call for a recount with a winning margin this big.

Here's how it looked at the end:

In fifth place, the Gatlinburg Arsonists - twenty-one (21) votes.

In fourth place, Fake News Authors - twenty-six (26) votes.

In third place, The Republican Party - thirty-one (31) votes.

In second place, Donald Trump - eighty-two (82) votes.

And the winner, taking first place with a staggering one hundred fifty-five (155) votes -

The Ass Clown of the Year

for

2016

The American Electorate

One of my old friends who lives in Germany said he was tempted to vote for the American Electorate, but voted for Donald Trump instead because it was not fair to blame the American Electorate as a whole for the outcome of the election - after all, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes, even though she lost in the Electoral College*. Nevertheless, I think the award is justified by the credulousness of those who voted for Donald Trump and the fecklessness of those who did not do their duty and vote.

For voting to turn the leadership of the Free World over to a thin-skinned, narcissistic billionaire whose idea of civil discourse and responsible statesmanship is sending insults by Twitter, The American Electorate is named our Ass Clown of the Year for 2016.

Sadly, we'll need to live with the consequences of their award for the next four years.

Have a good day and a happy new year. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

* And try explaining that to your friends in other countries. In a foreign language.

Cartoon Saturday

It's hard to believe, but we're almost done with this stupid year.

Brawls, mostly fueled by teenagers, broke out at shopping malls across the United States on the day after Christmas; 64 singers from the Russian army's Alexandrov Ensemble were among those killed when their aircraft crashed into the Black Sea on Christmas Day; continuing his tradition of replacing statesmanship with Twitter, President-elect Donald Trump described the United Nations as "just a club for people to get together, talk and have a good time;" actress Carrie Fisher, famous for her portrayal of Princess Leia in the Star Wars films, died two days after Christmas at the age of 60, and her mother, famed actress Debbie Reynolds, died the following day.

Here we go with the last collection of cartoons for 2016 ...

After a certain age, your holiday expectations moderate a bit ...

It'll be a lot thicker after January 20th ...

This is how I see most of those TV ads for DNA testing ...

Give your customers what they want ...

We must have had a lot of those back in November ...

Cows are pretty adaptable ...

Good news, bad news ...

I don't make New Year's resolutions. These, either ...

You knew this one was coming ...

Think about it ...

And so concludes your last Cartoon Saturday for 2016. After a year of celebrity deaths, electoral disappointments, decreasing civility, and all-around yuckiness, you need a bit of humor to help you square your shoulders and turn resolutely toward 2017 and beyond. I'm here to help.

Tomorrow is January 1st - New Year's Day - and we'll be announcing the Ass Clown of the Year for 2016. You still have until 11:59 PM tonight to cast your votes ... you can vote in your comments on this post, by e-mailing me, or sending me a PM on Facebook if we're friended there. If you need a recap of the rules, go here. So far, The American Electorate has a comfortable lead, with Donald Trump in a strong second place; others who have accumulated votes are, in no particular order:

The GOP;

The Democratic Party;

Fake News Authors;

The Gatlinburg Arsonists;

The Media;

Trump Administration Appointees (in general);

Kellyanne Conway;

Vladimir Putin;

Hillary Clinton;

Ryan Lochte; and,

The 24-Hour News Cycle.

You still have time to make your voice heard! Vote now, vote later, vote often!

If you are going to celebrate tonight, please don't drink and drive. I need to keep all of you around at least until I've met you all in person. Party hearty, be safe, and come back tomorrow for the announcement of the 2016 Ass Clown of the Year!

More thoughts then.

Bilbo

The On-Crack Ass Clown for December, 2016

December this year turns out to be one of those months with five Fridays, and the way they line up, three of those Fridays are dedicated to Ass Clown awards. And so it is that today, the last Friday of 2016, marks the final Ass Clown award for the year. Ladies and Gentlemen, Dear Readers, with the usual flatulent blare of trumpets we name

The On-Crack Ass Clown

for

December, 2016

President-Elect
Donald J. Trump

This marks the seventh time this award has been presented to Mr Trump, either as a standalone winner or in conjunction with a co-awardee. The degree of ass-clownery required to achieve this record is truly staggering, but Mr. Trump has done a tremendous job of demonstrating it. Here are a few of his latest qualifications:

In flagrant defiance of tradition and the reality that he is not the president until January 20th, Mr. Trump has inserted himself into foreign policy issues, undercutting the authority of the sitting president and making the United States look weak and confused.

He has upended four decades of carefully-crafted and calibrated relationships with China with a series of actions ranging from a phone call with the president of Taiwan to a tweet suggesting the Chinese government should keep a US Navy underwater drone it stole in international waters.

He has reversed attempts by previous administrations to make the world a safer place by tweeting that the United States should "greatly expand" its nuclear arsenal.

Contrary to his election-night comment that "it is time for us to come together as one united people," he has carried on an unseemly series of campaign-style rallies designed to crow over his victory rather than to address the divisive issues of the campaign and try to unite the country behind his leadership.

Mr. Trump spent the entire presidential campaign denigrating his opponents with cheap high-school-level nicknames like "Crooked Hillary," "Lyin' Ted," and "Little Marco" as a way of avoiding the need to address real issues affecting Real People.

In a brazen affront to the American People, Mr. Trump has steadfastly refused to address concerns about the potential conflicts of interest between his business affairs and his governmental powers, refusing to release his tax returns - as did every other presidential candidate going back decades - and deferring any discussion of how he will address conflicts of interest.

Mr. Trump has chosen to denigrate and demean the professionalism and dedication of the nation's 17 intelligence agencies because they don't support his desire for a close relationship with Russia's Vladimir Putin.

Mr. Trump has created a level of domestic and international uncertainty over his intentions by blasting out storms of tweets rather than holding press conferences and serious discussions with both supporters and opponents. Intractable problems will not be reduced to solution in 140 characters.

I could go on, but there's no point. Those who love Donald Trump will blithely overlook his many failings and his utter unsuitability for the presidency, while those who - like me - believe he will be a disaster understand all of this already. I just wanted to say it one last time.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Dear Readers, President-Elect Donald J. Trump is our final ass clown awardee for 2016 - the On-Crack Ass Clown for December.

But wait - there's more!

As I put the finishing touches on this post on the morning of December 24th, I ran across an article in the Washington Post that has led me to add a Dishonorable Mention to the On-Crack Ass Clown Award for this month ... this Dishonorable Mention goes to

Carl Paladino

Mr Paladino, a former GOP nominee for governor of New York and an advisor to Donald Trump, was asked what he wanted for 2017. His response: he hoped that "(President) Obama catches mad cow disease after being caught having relations with a Hereford (cow)," and that he wanted First Lady Michelle Obama "to return to being a male and let loose in the outback of Zimbabwe where she lives comfortably in a cave with Maxie, the gorilla." You can read the whole miserable story here.

When we turn to people like Donald Trump as our president and Carl Paladino as one of his advisors, all I can say is God help us. 

Have a good day and a safe, happy New Year's celebration.

More thoughts coming.

Bilbo

Say, What??

There are many reasons why I am confused and mortified by the election of a classless boor like Donald Trump to the office once held by George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin Roosevelt, but one of the most puzzling reasons is this: forgetting for a moment the outright lies, the insults, and the veiled threats, why do people take this man seriously when he can't even speak in complete sentences?

Other people smarter than I am have wondered the same thing, and I found an interesting article on Vox by Tara Golshan that helps to explain it: Donald Trump’s Strange Speaking Style, As Explained by Linguists. It's a very interesting article and, although it references linguistic theories, it's not full of off-putting scientific mumbo-jumbo and is worth your time to read.

To summarize up front, Trump's style reflects the difference between written and conversational spoken language, and relies on a shared cultural background with audiences that allow listeners to "fill in" the gaps in his remarks from their own experiences. As the article points out,

"(Trump) makes vague implications with a raised eyebrow or a shrug, allowing his audience to reach their own conclusions. And that conversational style can be effective. It’s more intimate than a scripted speech. People walk away from Trump feeling as though he were casually talking to them, allowing them to finish his thoughts."

Such a speaking style can be very effective when the speaker may not want to be held to his words as explicitly spoken, such as Trump's vague quasi-threat against Hillary Clinton in a speech delivered in North Carolina in August, 2016 ...

“If she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks ... Although the Second Amendment people — maybe there is, I don’t know.”

The sentence was rambling, incomplete, not terribly grammatical, and did not contain any explicit threat against Senator Clinton. However, because of the social and political culture shared by Mr Trump and his audience, listeners concerned about the supposed erosion of their gun rights would be able to connect the dots and understand the subtext of the message: You have a gun. You know what you can do.

Mr. Trump's style is also effective because it employs time-tested advertising techniques with which he, as a businessman, is very familiar and comfortable. When he doubles down, repeating a statement proven to be false, he relies on the technique of repetition to embed his version in the listener's mind. And when he ignores the complexity of major issues by reducing them to simple, bumper-sticker statements ("drain the swamp," "crooked Hillary," "build the wall"), he relies on the technique of over-simplification that encourages belief and trust and crowds out unwanted questions.

Another of his gifts is the ability to connect with his audiences on an emotional, rather than an intellectual level. As Dr Kristin DuMez, an historian, notes in the article,

"For listeners who identify with Trump, there is little they need to do but claim what they’re entitled to ... No need for sacrifice, for compromise, for complexity. He taps into fear and insecurity, but then enables his audience to express that fear through anger. And anger gives the illusion of empowerment."

These are the key words in that last quote: "no need for sacrifice, for compromise, for complexity." Mr. Trump uses language that appeals to the gut, not to the brain, and encourages his followers to believe in the ends without thinking inconveniently hard about the means.

Donald Trump is not a stupid man, although I believe he is a mendacious and venal one, and I believe his use of language underscores the reasons we should be wary of him as president. As Dr Geoffrey Pullum, a linguist from the University of Edinburgh, points out in the article,

"His speech suggests a man with scattered thoughts, a short span of attention, and a lack of intellectual discipline and analytical skills ... You get no ... organized thoughts from Trump. It's bursts of noun phrases, self-interruptions, sudden departures from the theme, flashes of memory, odd side remarks. It's the disordered language of a person with a concentration problem."

And this, of course, also helps to explain Mr. Trump's use of Twitter as his communications medium of choice. A message limited to 140 characters does not allow for nuance or complexity, and is nothing more than a gut-level bumper sticker that the True Believers can flesh out as they will.

The bottom line, from Dr Pullum, is this:

"Leadership is hard; it needs discipline, concentration, and an ability to ignore what's irrelevant or needless or personal or silly. There is no sign of it from Trump. This man talks honestly enough that you can see what he's like: He's an undisciplined narcissist who craves power but doesn't have the intellectual capacity to exercise it wisely."

And that is how I approach the transfer of power in this country on January 20th - hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.

Have a good day. Be here tomorrow for the announcement of the final Ass Clown awardee of 2016. More thoughts then.

Bilbo

When Things Just Don't Make Sense

No, I'm not talking about Donald Trump's approach to governance.

You're all familiar, I assume, with the expression commonly used by speakers of English to say that they don't understand something: It's all Greek to me!

Perhaps it is, at least to you. But what does a Greek say when something is unintelligible? After all, if it's Greek to her, then she ought to understand it perfectly well. As it turns out, the equivalent of the expression for speakers of Greek relates unintelligibility to Chinese.

I think this is fascinating, coming as it does at the intersection of linguistics, semantics, and sociology, and it probably says a lot about culture and language.

A while back I ran across this graph by Mark Liberman, a professor of linguistics at the University of Pennsylvania, which shows the language that various languages use to describe things that are incomprehensible ... click it to embiggen it ...

What's particularly interesting is that almost every language relates incomprehensibility to expression in a different language - most often Greek or Chinese. There are exceptions, though ... Chinese expresses the concept not in terms of another language, but as a "heavenly script," or "product of heaven" (for speakers of Mandarin) or "chicken intestines" (for speakers of Cantonese) while Japanese uses a string of nonsense syllables rather than a specific language.

There's a list of various equivalents of "It's all Greek to me" on the Omniglot website, which will help you avoid becoming boring with your descriptions of the actions and pronouncements of our incoming president.

Have a good day, in whatever language you choose. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

Selling Fragrances in Monotones

Many years ago, not long after Marconi got the kinks worked out of the technology, I produced my own radio program - The Audio Attic - on Radio Fairfax, the public access station in Fairfax County, Virginia.

In learning the basics of radio production, I had to master things like air time management and the ins and outs of advertising ... the hard sell, the soft sell, and the use of one's voice to create an atmosphere for the listener conducive getting him or her to want to run out and buy whatever you were selling.

I've been off the air for a long time, but I thought about my experiences in advertising the other day when I realized something about a subject I'd never much considered before - fragrance commercials.

There are a lot of commercials on television now for a lot of different fragrances, and they all have one thing in common ... see if it registers with you. Consider this one, for J'Adore ...

and this one, for "Boss: the Scent" ...

and this one, for l'Eau #5 from Chanel ...

Here's what I noticed: none of them has much dialog, but all of the dialog is delivered in a monotone.

Now, I spent a lot of time learning all sorts of verbal delivery techniques to avoid a monotone ... and these overpriced perfumes seem to be deliberately using it in their pitches. What's up with that? Is a monotone supposed to be sexy? I know that advertisers use various accents to create specific moods - French for sexy, English* for sophistication, German for high technology** - but what is conveyed by an offhand monotone?

What, if anything, is the effect that such an ad with such a delivery has on you? I'm curious, so please leave a comment.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

* It's been said that an upper class Englishman reading the Manhattan phone book will always sound better than an American reading the Gettysburg Address.

** Or for threats.

Adopting Sophia's Approach to Privacy

When we moved into our house in 1992 and I adopted the front corner bedroom for use as my study, I quickly ran into a problem: in order to fit in my desk and all my bookshelves, I had to remove the door. This meant that, unless I decided to go with tacky beads or opaque plastic sheets, I would have to give up the privacy provided by a door.

Now, this is not as crucially important nowadays, as only Agnes and I are in the house most of the time, and I don't generally need to keep her out of my study*. The grandchildren aren't here all that often, and most visitors don't wander around the house and poke their noses in. But nevertheless, most of us need a little privacy now and then.

Enter Sophia.

I found this clever flowchart posted on Miss Cellania's wonderful blog a few days back:

    

This young lady has a fairly sophisticated and methodical approach to minimizing unwanted traffic into her room, and it got me to wonder how I might adopt her strategy to help keep people out of my study, given the lack of a functioning door. Here's my version of Sophia's chart; click to embiggen ...

Just so you're not surprised if you come to visit.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

* Except when I'm wrapping gifts, or when I have to hide the supply of chocolate for one reason or another.

Christmas Day, 2016

If you came here looking for Musical Sunday, come back again in two weeks ... today is the day for Bilbo's Traditional Christmas Post.

Today is Christmas Day, the day on which Christians around the world celebrate the birth of Jesus Christ, whose lessons and example many of them find great in theory but decline to follow in practice. Beyond the Christian world, it is a season for general good cheer, the exchange of gifts, and a month of uplifting and sentimental television shows which temporarily replace the sex, violence, and cynicism of the rest of the year.

We’ve long bemoaned the commercialization of Christmas, in which the purchase and exchange of gifts has replaced thoughtful contemplation and love of family. But now, Christmas has been politicized as well. Conservative shouting heads complain about a “war on Christmas,” and both Christians and non-Christians complain about discrimination because they don’t want to have to accommodate religious ideas and traditions which are not their own. Angry idiots object to hearing a generic “Happy Holidays” instead of "Merry Christmas," "Happy Hanukkah," "Happy Solstice," "Happy Kwanzaa," "Happy Festivus," or other seasonal holiday of choice. Nuisance lawsuits force towns and cities to remove nativity displays from public places. Scrooge lives on.

The traditional Christmas story that most of us recognize is told in the Bible in the second chapter of the gospel of Matthew:

2:8 And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night. 
2:9 And, lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid. 
2:10 And the angel said unto them, Fear not: for, behold, I bring you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people.
2:11 For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Savior, which is Christ the Lord. 
2:12 And this shall be a sign unto you; You shall find the Babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger. 
2:13 And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God, and saying, 
2:14 Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.

Whatever happened to the part about “peace on earth and goodwill toward men*?” It seems to have been replaced by “peace on earth, goodwill only to those who agree with me, and the rest of you can go to Hell.” It’s been replaced by rigid intolerance and stiff-necked self-righteousness that belie both the spirit of the season and the values and teachings of the person whose birth is being celebrated.

Nevertheless, for those willing to put aside their cultural tunnel vision and their petty carping and hatreds, the Christmas season offers a time for joy and renewal, regardless of the religious tradition they profess to follow. It’s a season in which men (okay, persons) of goodwill can come together and treat each other like real human beings rather than like despised “others” … if, of course, they’re willing to bend enough to do so.

And it is, above all, a season for children, who have not yet been spoiled by the cynicism and hatred they’ll learn all too soon. The look on a child’s face on Christmas morning is a wonderful thing, and it reminds us that there is still joy to be found in life, if only we can get past the greed, selfishness, and political chicanery.

And so, Dear Readers, Agnes and I and our extended family wish all of you a very joyous Christmas and a safe, happy, and healthy new year. Blog on!

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

* Okay, “persons.” Don’t get your holiday knickers in a twist.

Christmas Eve, 2016

Note: this post is slightly updated from my Christmas Eve post from last year. Reruns aren't only found on television ...

Today is the day of Christmas Eve, when millions of people across the nation and the world make their annual pilgrimage to the mall in search of the gifts they haven't yet purchased. Tonight, children will set out milk and cookies for Santa and desperately try to stay up late in hopes of seeing him, parents will use salty language as they try to deal with the toy for which "some assembly (is) required," and stores will sell out of the batteries you didn't realize you needed for that toy for which "some assembly (is) required."

Here's an appropriate quote from comic author Dave Barry:

"Once again we find ourselves enmeshed in the Holiday Season, that very special time of year when we join with our loved ones in sharing centuries-old traditions such as trying to find a parking space at the mall. We traditionally do this in my family by driving around the parking lot until we see a shopper emerge from the mall, then we follow her, in very much the same spirit as the Three Wise Men, who 2,000 years ago followed a star, week after week, until it led them to a parking space."

Ah, the holidays!

Tomorrow, I'll have my annual Christmas post ... for now, here's a brief message for the clueless shouting heads that are trying to spin an idiotic "war on Christmas" ...

Ho, ho, ho and all that seasonal stuff.

Tonight at Chez Bilbo Agnes and I will celebrate Christmas in the German way, with a good dinner of ham with Agnes's warm potato salad, followed by opening gifts under the tree and a good night's sleep. That constitutes a wild Christmas after a certain age.

Come back tomorrow for my traditional Christmas thoughts.

Bilbo