Of Systems and Simplification

A few days ago, I wrote about the economy (everybody's favorite topic) as a problem that had to be viewed and addressed as a system. You can read that post here. Yesterday, I ran across a very interesting article that also bears (if tangentially) on solving the problem of the economy ... it deals with the problem of simplification.

Author Norman Manea's article Against Simplification appeared on the Project Syndicate website. His particular argument dealt with the oversimplification of culture and its effect on the human condition. He begins by noting that we Americans "have a genius for simplification," and that this quest for simplicity and the desire to avoid disturbing, overly complicated ideas is spreading around the world ("...conquer(ing) new territories, just as blue jeans once did"). Here's the key part of his article:

"Culture is a necessary pause from the daily rat race, from our chaotic and often vulgar political surroundings, and it is a chance to recover our spiritual energy. Great books, music, and paintings are not only an extraordinary school of beauty, truth, and good, but also a way of discovering our own beauty, truth, and good – the potential for change, of bettering ourselves and even some of our interlocutors.

"If this respite and refuge is gradually narrowed and invaded by the same kind of 'products' as those that dominate the mass market, we are condemned to be perpetual captives of the same stunted universe of “practicalities,” the ordinary agglomeration of clichés packaged in advertisements."

I like that last part: the ordinary agglomeration of clichés packaged in advertisements.

Mr Manea was speaking specifically about the negative impact of oversimplification on culture, but his observation applies more broadly than that. The causes of the current economic crisis are many and complex, and the tendency on the part of our elected reprehensives is to dumb down their approaches to a few oversimplified bumper stickers: the problem is too much debt, or job-killing regulations, or too-high taxes on business or the wealthy. Anything more complicated than that makes single-issue political partisans' brains melt.

Oversimplification of culture leads to dullness of thinking and a diminishing of the spirit. Oversimplification of politics leads to ... well ... the mess we see around us.

Think critically. Look beyond the bumper stickers. Avoid the desire to go for the satisfying, but overly simplistic explanation. Challenge yourself. Remember Bilbo's First Law -

Never let anyone else do your thinking for you.

Least of all me.

Have a good day. Think. And come back tomorrow for Cartoon Saturday. More thoughts then.

Bilbo

Something Else to Worry About

In a world where Congress is more concerned with partisan purity than with doing its job, the economy is in the toilet, flash mobs loot stores, people give a rat's rear end that Kim Kardashian is getting married, and clothing manufacturers are offering to pay "celebrities" to not wear their clothes, it's nice to know that there are still a few ordinary, natural things to worry about.

Like terrible diseases.

I was link-hopping from a friend's Facebook page the other day when I discovered this interesting graphic on the good.is website - Outbreak: the Deadliest Pandemics in History. If you think the brain-dead ass clowns of the far right and far left are a plague, consider plagues that were demonstrably worse: the champion appears to be smallpox - now supposedly eradicated - which has killed more than 300 million people throughout recorded history. Measles comes in second with a mere 200 million victims, and the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919 is in third with an estimated 50-100 million deaths. And, of course, there was the infamous Black Death that killed off much of the population of Europe in the 14th century.

Almost makes you appreciate low-grade nuisances like election seasons and ass clowns who insist on loud cell phone conversations in public, doesn't it?

Anyhow, there are lots of interesting infographics at the good.is website ... I'm not sure how accurate they all are, but they provide good food for thought, if nothing else.

That's all for today. Yesterday, my daughter and I met for lunch at Oyamel, and today Agnes and I are planning to enjoy lunch at Chef Geoff's downtown in observance of DC Restaurant Week - one of those things that help take the edge off the disadvantages of living in Disneyland-on-the-Potomac. Around here, we take our jollies where we can find them.

Have a good day. Wash your hands and get your flu shots. And have a good lunch. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

The Economy as a Systems Problem

Many years ago, shortly after the earth's crust cooled and single-cell organisms developed, I took my first stab at earning a Master's degree by enrolling in the University of Southern California's MS in Systems Management program at Barksdale Air Force Base, where I was then stationed. I ended up not completing the program for many reasons (not the least of which was that I was a bit dim), but it did have a lasting impact on me: it made me think of problems in terms of systems.

The Readers' Digest version of the systems management concept is that problems don't exist in isolation, but as part of a larger environment which can be affected in unexpected ways by your attempts to solve the original problem. Sort of a leg-bone's-connected-to-the-hip-bone approach or, to use one of my favorite analogies, the squeeze-the-balloon effect - when you squeeze an inflated balloon, it will compensate for the pressure you put in one place by bulging out in other places.

This is why I am so irritated by the ineptitude of Congress's attempts to "fix" the economy: nobody is looking at it as a system, with interconnected parts that affect each other. The problem isn't debt ceiling, unemployment, trade imbalances, an asinine tax structure, rigid politics that put party line purity over common sense, or any other single issue (no matter what the wingnuts of the far right and far left would have you believe) - it's all of them taken together, and the impacts they have on each other.

What this means, of course, is that no single solution will fix the economy, because all the problems are interconnected. Here are a few examples of what I mean:

- Businesses aren't hiring because nobody has the money to buy their goods and services.

- People don't have money to buy goods and services because they don't have jobs.

- People demand lower prices on goods and services to compensate for their lack of income.

- Businesses reduce prices and maintain profit levels by laying off expensive domestic workers and outsourcing jobs to overseas locations where labor is cheap (and they don't have to worry about all those job-killing regulations).

- As people lose jobs, the government loses the income it would otherwise get by taxing their earnings. Because of a political reluctance to discuss taxes, and in order to continue operating and keep up the expected level of services, the government resorts to borrowing money, resulting in ever-increasing levels of debt which must be paid by ... surprise! ... more borrowing.

It's all a system, and all the parts are connected.

But having said all of the above, it seems to me that there are three things that will do more to help solve the interconnected problems than almost anything else:

1. Get people back to work. People with jobs have money to spend and invest. They drive the economy. In large measure, this will require businesses to take some risks by absorbing the cost of new workers in expectation of future profits. But if people don't have jobs, they don't have income. And if they don't have income, they can't spend. Get 'em back to work.

2. Throw out the entire current tax code and start over from scratch. Tax all income received from any source, and eliminate all deductions, advantages, credits, and other politically-motivated tax code gifts to individuals and businesses that reduce tax income for the government. This will probably allow a great reduction in the tax rate because lower rates applied to a larger base will generate the same - or more - income.

3. Get serious about reducing government spending. Easier said than done, I know, because every government spending program has its own constituency, and because programs that benefit Real People generally don't have vast armies of well-financed lawyers and lobbyists to protect them. But we've got to have less spending today to control future debt, as well as more income today to pay off the debt we've already accumulated. The idea of a balanced approach may be anathema to the hysterical right, but we're not going to get the problems solved just by slashing programs willy-nilly. No matter how much spending you cut now, you still need to be able to pay off the debt that's already been accumulated.

Because it's all a system.

Get people back to work. Fix the tax code. Control spending.

But don't hold your breath on any of them, because it's easier to shout about individual issues, and systems are ... well ... complicated.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

The Dead Horse Theory

This old joke comes to me in its most recent version from my friend and co-worker John. It describes the so-called dead horse theory - an old adage attributed to the Dakota Indians which says that, "When you discover you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount." While this may be true, there are many other versions of the theory frequently employed in government, business and higher education. These include:

1. Buying a stronger whip.

2. Changing riders.

3. Eliminating burdensome, onerous government regulations which limit the ability of dead horses to compete with live ones.

4. Appointing a super committee of 12 to study the dead horse and make recommendations no one else is able to make.

5. Arranging taxpayer-funded visits to other countries to see how other cultures ride dead horses.

6. Lowering standards so dead horses can compete against the unfair advantages enjoyed by live ones.

7. Reclassifying the dead horse as living-impaired.

8. Hiring highly-priced outside contractors to study advanced techniques for riding dead horses.

9. Harnessing several dead horses together to increase speed.

10. Providing additional funding and specialized training to increase dead horse's performance.

11. Conducting a productivity study to see if lighter riders would improve the dead horse's performance.

12. Declaring that because the dead horse does not have to be fed, it is less costly, carries lower overhead and therefore contributes substantially more to the bottom line of the economy than live horses.

13. Rewriting the expected performance requirements for all horses.

14. Promoting the dead horse to a supervisory position.

15. Eliminating taxes on the winnings of dead horses.

16. Rearranging the fence lines around pastures to optimize the relative percentages of dead and live horses.

17. Before jumping to the conclusion that the horse is actually dead, making sure you are talking to the correct end (especially important if the horse is occupying an elective office).

18. Holding noisy demonstrations demanding no new dead horses.

19. Mandating that all horses buy health care insurance so that they don't die in the first place.

And ...

20. Enforcing border controls to prevent the illegal immigration of dead horses.

And now it's time to go to work and flagellate my own dead horses. I can hardly wait.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

Job-Killing Regulations

As the economy splutters on, lurching and reeling like an old drunk while Republicans and Democrats trade blame for the disaster instead of actually working together to fix the problems, we face an intractable dilemma: nobody quite knows what to do to fix the problems.

If you're a hard-shell, take-no-prisoners political purist, of course, you know all the answers -

The Republican View: reduce taxes to virtually nothing, cut government spending (and, by extension, government itself) to the bone, and eliminate all job-killing regulations on businesses.

The Democratic View: increase government spending to keep at least part of the economy going, increase taxes on the wealthy, and cut spending on everything except social programs.

In my humble opinion, both of these views are overly simplistic and ... well ... stupid.

I've beaten the rhetorical drum about taxes often enough, so I won't talk about that part of it any more. Let's talk this morning about the nightmare that keeps Republicans up at night, quivering with righteous anger: regulation. Oh, excuse me - I forgot the mandatory modifier: job-killing regulation.

In the prevailing Republican philosophy, if I understand it correctly beneath the level of shouted rhetoric and sound bites, the major drag on the performance of the economy is the enormous and unnecessary burden of excessive government regulation on business. In the Republican view, vast numbers of faceless bureaucrats are hired by a heedless government to do nothing all day long except dream up new and burdensome regulations that force businesses to waste time, resources, and energy doing things other than making money...

The truth, as you might suspect, is somewhat more nuanced than that.

I don't think that there are regiments of mindless bureaucratic drones who wake up each morning, yawn, stretch, scratch their backsides, and report to work to dream up new ways to hobble the economy. I suspect that that every job-killing regulation you could name began as a well-intentioned effort to address a real problem ... protection of consumers from dangerous chemicals or predatory business practices, protection of workers by improving workplace safety, improving the quality of the air we breathe and the water we drink, and so on. The problem is that if you're the business that must comply with these regulations, you look at the bottom line ... and the bottom line isn't generally helped by anything not directly related to making a profit.

So let's accept for a moment that the job-killing regulations we hear so much about actually grew out of legitimate ways to address real problems. Job-killing regulations have given us reasonable working hours, a safer workplace, a better environment, and assistance with health care. Are those things worth the burden they place on businesses? In many cases, that's up for debate. We've all heard the horror stories about uncoordinated and unreviewed regulations, particularly from the much-maligned Occupational Safety and Health Administration, which once famously required the installation of loud warning signals on vehicles to alert workers that the vehicles were backing up...and then required those workers to wear hearing protection because of the long-term effects of loud noise in the workplace. You've probably seen cartoons like this one ...

Silly? Of course. But the point is valid - there needs to be a balance struck between regulations that are well-intentioned but overly burdensome and those that are well-intentioned and necessary. Who decides which are which? Well, there's the problem. Businesses would prefer no regulations at all, workers would prefer regulations that protect them from danger and from arbitrary exploitation. Somebody needs to referee the scrum.

And that's our old bogeyman, the government bureaucrat.

I think it would be useful to ratchet back the inflammatory rhetoric. Republicans need to understand that there are good arguments in favor of reasonable regulation of business activity, while Democrats need to understand that we can't use regulations as a way of addressing every perceived problem. Unrestricted business practices gave us benefits like child labor, unsafe workplaces, and the collapse of the financial mismanagement industry. Overly restrictive business practices give us economic stagnation and provide little incentive for businesses to hire workers.

How about let's stop shouting about job-killing regulations and do something useful, like reviewing the impact of existing regulations before imposing new ones ... and not just asking the regulated businesses for their opinion, but asking for the opinion of the Real People who might benefit from those regulations as well?

Because we're all in this together.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

Random Sunday

It's a hot, muggy, rainy, dreary day here in Disneyland-on-the-Potomac. On the upside, I slept late, so I missed at least some of the dreary part. And I guess I shouldn't complain about the rain, since so much of the country is without it, should I?

How about just a few random things for a dreary Sunday?

It was on this date in 2003 that a huge blackout left most of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada without power, raising fears of terrorist sabotage and leaving more than 50 million people in the dark ... much as they remain today if they just watch Faux News or MSNBC all the time, ha, ha. The loss of power affected almost every element of daily life in the stricken areas, and many businesses suffered millions of dollars in losses of perishable goods when electrically-powered refrigeration units failed to work. While most areas regained power within a few hours, many people were without power for a day or two. Two of the millions of people caught up in the blackout were Agnes's cousin Anna and her husband Volker who were visiting from Germany to do some traveling before our daughter's wedding ... they went home with plenty of stories to tell.

You may recall that back in October of last year, I admitted that I love poetry. I especially enjoy finding a great poem that lends itself to being read aloud. As it happens, today is the anniversary of the birth (in 1863) of Ernest Thayer, the author of one of my favorite "read aloud" poems, Casey at the Bat.

The poem was published in 1888, but didn't attract much notice and remained little-read until comedian William DeWolf Hopper, who was putting on a post-game show for fans at a baseball game, found himself short of material and was given a copy of the poem by his friend Archibald Gunther to use as filler. Hopper's recitation of the poem was a huge success, and Casey at the Bat became part of American baseball history. Hopper became widely known for performing the poem, but it wasn't until many years later that he learned the identity of its author ... and both men remain little-known today, even though the poem lives on in popularity.

And that's all for this gloomy day. I hope the weather is better where you are.

Have a good day. Stay dry. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

Cartoon Saturday

The end of another week ...

Today is the anniversary of the birth in 1899 of legendary suspense film director Alfred Hitchcock (famously parodied in Mad Magazine as "Alfred Hatchplot"); an American citizen has been kidnapped in Pakistan (although why anyone would want to live there in the first place is beyond me); police in Britain have arrested and charged nearly 2000 people in the fierce riots and looting that swept the country last week; Congress is still on vacation while the stock market continued to wipe out the investments of Real People, many of whom still don't have jobs and are wondering why members of Congress still do; and a Louisiana man who died last year has been confirmed to have been killed by the infected bite of a rabid vampire bat (initial reports hinted that he'd actually been bitten by a Tea Party Republican).

You can either go back to bed and pull the covers over your head, or read Cartoon Saturday. I recommend the latter.

Mike isn't the only one who can regale you with terrible puns ...

I should have seen this one coming ...

In answer to alanwoodhaven's question the other day, I noted that I had lots of cartoons on file sorted into categories. One of those categories is mimes; here are a few from that genre ...

There are mimes everywhere ...

And they sometimes need your help ...

They've got to get their start somewhere...

And they've all got to go sometime ...

I also have a lot of cartoons dealing with GPS - the Global Positioning System - which lends itself to all sorts of funny observations. This is one of the better ones I've seen lately ...

The question of what happens when earth finally meets visitors from deep space is a staple of science fiction stories and movies. And cartoons ...

And finally, here's what you can expect from a Congress that is deeply concerned about ensuring Americans have access to good, affordable health care ...

I think I had another wonderful time at last night's dance party...I'll know for sure once I download the pictures Agnes and I took. Those that are suitable may well end up on my Facebook page later today, for those of you who are regular visitors there. Otherwise, it looks to be a pretty average weekend coming up ... plenty of rain expected this afternoon and tomorrow (not that we need it ... just not all at once, thank you), plenty of chores to be done, and a visit to the local library this morning, where three books I've been on the hold list for for many weeks have all showed up at once.

Of course.

Have a good day and a great weekend. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

I Need to Work On My Image

Yesterday craziequeen posted a "friendship report card" to my Facebook page, on which I received a grade of "C+", with the comment, "Works too slowly."

Clearly, I have to work on my image.

But that will take a while, and since I work too slowly, you may want to check back in a few years to see how it worked out.

In the meantime, let's talk about other random stuff, shall we?

Mike continues to beat the still-twitching dead horse of my "Ask Bilbo" challenge with this question:

Q: "If AAA is changing to AA+ will their phone number change by one digit too?"

A: Forget the phone number. My sources tell me that there will be a further downgrade of the US credit rating. The first downgrade was from AAA to AA+. The next one will be from AA+ to AAARRRGGGHHH!!

Speaking of downgraded credit ratings, my son-in-law Vin sent me a link to a hysterical You Tube video in which "Felonius Munk" encourages the government to pay its bills. Because the language is more than a little salty, I won't embed it here, but if you're interested, e-mail me or post a comment and I'll send you the link. I'd send it to my elected reprehensives, but I think it would go over their heads.

Eight Republican presidential wannabes - former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, Minnesota Representative Michelle Bachmann, former Utah governor Jon Huntsman, former House Speaker and professional gadfly Newt Gingrich, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, Texas Representative Ron Paul and businessman Herman Cain - engaged in a debate of sorts yesterday at Iowa State University. Yawn. Here's one way to look at it, courtesy of Indexed ...

And that's all for today. I have to practice working faster.

Have a good day. Come back tomorrow for Cartoon Saturday ... you know you need it. More thoughts then.

Bilbo

Ask Bilbo, Part 2

Because there are always a few people who don't get the original memo, we have a few more questions that have come in from those who want to tap Bilbo's Font 'o Useless Knowledge. Here are the latest submissions:

Amanda asked:

Q: Is Agnes your only dance partner and do you ever get into arguments over the dancing? I'm asking this because I'd love to get Richard dancing but I'm afraid I might end up strangling him.

A: No, we both dance with other people as well. Dancing is, after all, a social skill. Dancing with other people helps the man improve his leading skills, and keeps a couple from learning to compensate for each other's mistakes. I would also tell you that it's a great opportunity to get my hands on a lot of different ladies without getting slapped. Or strangled. Most of the time.

A2: Do we ever get into arguments over the dancing? Is a bear Catholic? Does the Pope sleep in the woods? Of course we do! That's why I took lessons from someone else, even though Agnes is a trained and certified teacher. Over the years, I've grown used to getting the eye rolls and puzzled looks that mean what are you trying to do? I must say, though, that neither of us has ever stormed off the dance floor and spent the rest of the evening glaring sourly, like some couples we've observed over the years.

From eViL pOp TaRt:

Q: What effect do you think the U.S. S & P rating being downgraded from AAA to AA+ will have on the incomes of edcysiasts and bikini baristas?

A: (after realizing she really meant ecdysiasts): I believe the S&P rating downgrade will not have a significant effect on this population. Because both have their assets on display for inspection at all times, they do not require the intervention of a "professional" rating agency to assist in their evaluation. The real impact will be seen in the quantity of tips each receives, which is linked to the S&P rating only in the sense that the rating downgrade may result in a reduction of observers' income and, thus, the amount of disposable cash available for pecuniary expression of appreciation.

Duckbutt wanted to know...

Q: Do you know why Baptists are so down on people making love while standing?

A: I suspect it's because everyone has to stand for something, and they've decided to stand for something other than making love. This, of course, will result in a decrease in the number of Baptists in the long term, but that's their problem.

Finally, although it wasn't really a question, my old friend Dave pointed out that at the current exchange rate, the $7.56 left in my retirement account after the latest market disaster will be worth exactly 5.12 euros, which is just about enough for a bus ride downtown and back. I think I may need to take up a new hobby to finance my retirement ... I considered thievery and large-scale embezzlement, but Congress has a lock on those. Bummer.

Any other questions? Just ask Bilbo. I'm always ready to help.

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo

Ask Bilbo!

Yesterday, I invited you, Dear Readers, to submit your burning questions to ol' Uncle Bilbo. In a world and a time when you can't get a straight answer to anything - especially from anyone you've elected - there needs to be someone to whom you can go for the straight skinny, and it might as well be me.

Three of you submitted questions, and so let's get right to them ...

Faithful Reader Chrissy was first up, e-mailing me three questions:

Q: If you could live anywhere (money isn't a factor)...where would it be? Why?

A: Southern Germany. The landscape is beautiful, the food wonderful, the people friendly, and it's conveniently located for travel to Switzerland, Austria, France, and Italy. We're strongly considering retiring there when the time comes, although I'm not sure the $7.56 left in my retirement investment accounts will sustain us for long.

Q: If you could meet President Bush and Obama in a dark alley (nobody else around for miles)...what would you say to them?

A1: To President (George W) Bush: What the hell were you thinking when you started two wars, then cut taxes and borrowed the money to pay for them?

A2: To President Obama: When are you going to grow some cojones and start providing some leadership?

Q: If Cheney was to suddenly become a Drag Queen...what would his/her stage name be?

A: Dickless Cheney, of course.

Mike (of course) was the next person to send questions...he had five:

Q: What is pi squared?

A: Sheet cake (this was actually Agnes's answer, which I liked better than my own).

Q: I've gotten bored with the word verification game. Why?

A: Because you keep losing?

Q: What kind of drugs has Agnes been on all these years to put up with you? I want some.

A: The drugs don't work any more. These days, she's into auto hypnosis and extreme denial.

Q: How can the great Biblo (I think he means Bilbo) run out of words? I've always thought of you as a quantitative verbologist.

A: I never run out of words, just ideas. If I need new words, I just make 'em up. And "quantitative verbologist" sounds so much better than "overly wordy."

Q: Do you want to join my new political party, the conservative socialist independents?

A: Only if I can be in charge of publicly hanging morons.

The last set of questions was submitted by alanwoodhaven, who wanted to know ...

Q: You always have great comics on Saturday. What are your usual sources? How large a collection do you have in your files just waiting for their chance to shine?

A1: The usual sources? - I find new cartoons every day in various places on the Internet, including various newspapers and magazines and the marvelous azcentral.com. I also scan cartoons I find in various hard-copy media, and many are e-mailed to me by friends who spot them and think I'd like them (I accept all contributions at bilbo_the_blogger(at)yahoo(dot)com).

A2: How large a collection? - I have about 2700 in my "new and unused" file, and another 1100 in the "already used" folder. I also have about 500 in various "specialized cartoon" files, which include topics like "clowns," "dogs," "lawyers," "GPS," and "penguins."

Q: What's the speed of light?

A: The speed of light, often referred to in equations as c, is considered an absolute physical constant, and can be expressed in several ways, including:

- 186,000 miles per second;

- 700,000,000 miles per hour; and,

- 299,792,458 meters per second.

The speed of light is also considerably faster than the speed of sound, which is why you see the lightning before you hear the thunder, and why a lot of people appear bright until you hear them speak.

Well, there you have it - straight answers to your questions from your old buddy Bilbo. If you have any other questions, put them into the comments or e-mail them to bilbo_the_blogger(at)yahoo(dot)com, and I'll answer them in future "Ask Bilbo" posts.

After all, if you can't trust Bilbo, who can you trust?

Have a good day. More thoughts tomorrow.

Bilbo